Sachin Pilot vs Congress | Who will blink first?

Given that the Rajasthan imbroglio is fast reaching a point of no return, Pilot could make tracks for the BJP which has welcomed Congress leaders

The ongoing battle between Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and his younger colleague Sachin Pilot has entered a critical phase as the young Tonk MLA is clearly in a defiant mood.

This was evident from his decision to sit on a day-long dharna against his own government even after he was warned by the Congress that his protest would be construed as ‘anti-party activity’.

Though he has been baiting Gehlot ever since he was denied the Chief Minister’s post in 2018, Pilot has obviously decided to push the envelope further, irrespective of the fall-out of his actions.

In the latest instance of this Pilot vs Gehlot drama, the young leader has accused the Chief Minister of not investigating the corruption charges against the Vasundhara Raje government, and went on a day-long fast ostensibly to press his demand for speedy action in this instance. But the real purpose is to corner Gehlot and could be to remind the party high command that it has not fulfilled its promise of anointing him Chief Minister.

While the Congress leadership is yet to initiate disciplinary action against him, Pilot appears to be biding his time, weighing the various options before him. With the Rajasthan assembly polls due this year-end, time is running out for him. Pilot must decide on his next course of action in the coming months as the Congress has made it clear it has no plans of replacing Gehlot and that the party will seek a renewed mandate under his leadership.

Given that the Rajasthan imbroglio is fast reaching a point of no return, the obvious option before Pilot would be to make tracks for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which has only been too happy to lay out the red carpet for a host of Congress leaders. Pilot is no stranger to the BJP as he was allegedly in touch with its leadership when he revolted against his party in 2020 and camped at a resort with a band of his supporters to pull down the Gehlot government in the hope becoming Chief Minister. Unfortunately for him, the mission failed.

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The question is whether the BJP would be willing to give the top post to Pilot if it returns to power. The BJP is looking to promote new leaders in the desert state as it wants to end the party’s dependence on Raje. Pilot would fit the bill as he is popular with the youth and enjoys support of the Gujjar community to which he belongs.

The BJP has, so far, been wary of giving such key positions to outsiders on their immediate induction in the party. They generally must prove their worth before being rewarded. Moreover, it has its own contenders which include Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla and Union ministers Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, and Ashwini Vaishnaw. But even if Pilot is denied the coveted post, he will be able to draw satisfaction from watching the collapse of Gehlot and the Congress.

Alternatively, Pilot could emulate his former senior colleague Ghulam Nabi Azad, who has floated his own political party after he snapped ties with the Congress. Though there is little scope for a third force in Rajasthan which has strong political players in the Congress and the BJP, it is also a fact that parties such as the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Jat leader Hanuman Beniwal’s Rashtriya Loktantrik Party have picked up a couple of seats each in the past.

The Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is also planning to test the waters in the year-end assembly polls after tasting success in Punjab. If Pilot is unable to reach any understanding with the BJP, AAP could be a good option for him. AAP is raring to go, especially now that it has been recognised as a national party, and it could do with a leader who is well-recognised in the state and has a caste base even though there are only 10-odd Gujjar-dominated seats in Rajasthan.

In fact, political circles in Rajasthan have been speculating about the emergence of a Third Front after Pilot appeared at Beniwal’s birthday celebrations which were also attended by Kejriwal and Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann. Beniwal further stirred the political pot with his public announcement that he would be happy to have an alliance with Pilot if he leaves the Congress and floats his own party. Beniwal and Pilot may not be in a position to come to power on their own, but their objective would be to pick up a substantial number of seats by consolidating the Jat-Gujjar vote in their favour so that they can play kingmaker in a post-poll scenario.

Pilot’s latest act of defiance has jolted the Congress. Despite the warning issued to him, the party will attempt to placate Pilot and persuade him to stay. But having gone so far, it will be difficult for the rebel leader to climb down and contest the coming election under Gehlot’s leadership. However, Pilot may not leave in a hurry. He would rather the Congress follow up on its warning and suspend him so he can go out as the one wronged. It is now to be seen who blinks first.

Anita Katyal is a Delhi-based journalist.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.)