Peace process takes a hit

The arrest of the “mastermind” in the attack at Kabul University on November 2, which left 25 students dead and dozens of others injured, has laid bare the hand of the Haqqani Network. The ‘mastermind’ was reportedly recruited and provided weapons by the Haqqani Network. Its leader, Sirajuddin Haqqani, who is also a member of the Taliban’s top decision-making body and a deputy to its chief, Haibatullah Akhundzada, had, in an op-ed piece in the New York Times, written in mid-February about the Taliban’s strong commitment to the peace process. Indeed, he seemed to be speaking on behalf of the insurgent group, confirming that the Haqqani Network is fully integrated into the Taliban. In recent months, the Taliban has been engaged in talks with the Afghan government. Yet it has continued to attack Afghan forces and civilians. It has repeatedly indicated that it places little value on human lives. The carnage in Kabul early this month reaffirms what was long feared: the Taliban/Haqqani Network’s verbal commitment to peace is insincere.

Sirajuddin Haqqani has close links with the Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence and his group has carried out dozens of attacks in Afghanistan on the ISI’s orders. It is unlikely that the Haqqani Network, given its dependence on Pakistani financial and other largesse, would have carried out an attack as significant as the one on Kabul University, on its own. It would have had the ISI’s blessings and logistical support.

Islamabad is said to have played a major role in getting the Taliban/Haqqani Network to the negotiating table and is determined to keep control of the process and its outcome. Reports indicate that moderate elements in the Taliban are keen to shake free of the ISI’s iron grip. Was the attack on Kabul University aimed at sending a message to the Taliban’s political wing that it is the ISI, not the moderate Taliban that will determine the course of the peace process? Hardliners in the Taliban and the Haqqani Network, as well as the ISI who are opposed to the peace talks, are trying to sabotage it. Many ISI officials have built their careers and made fortunes out of Pakistan’s decades-old support to the Taliban and the war in Afghanistan. They stand to lose enormously if the war winds down. Attacks such as the one at Kabul University are likely to grow in the coming weeks. The Afghan government will be under enormous pressure to pull out of the talks. Leaders are already raising questions about the Taliban’s commitment. The peace process has hit turbulence.