Tejashwi Yadav’s seat claim exposes Mahagathbandhan’s inherent weakness

The RJD’s aggressive stance risks alienating allies and weakening the anti-BJP front

The Bihar Assembly election is approaching, and the political intensity in Bihar is at an unprecedented level. 

This election is not only a litmus test for the leadership of Janata Dal (United) chief and Bihar’s Chief Minister Nitish Kumar but also for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has long aspired to secure a dominant foothold in the state. However, a significant spotlight is also on the Mahagathbandhan, led by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav, alongside Congress leader Rahul Gandhi.

Gandhi recently concluded his Voter Adhikar Yatra in Bihar, a campaign that showcased a seemingly united Mahagathbandhan. Yet, just as the coalition appeared to gain traction, Yadav dropped a bombshell, announcing that the RJD would contest all 243 seats in the upcoming polls. While the intricacies of seat-sharing negotiations among Mahagathbandhan partners — the RJD, the Congress, the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation, the Communist Party of India, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) — remain behind closed doors, Yadav’s declaration has undeniably struck a discordant note. As the coalition’s largest stakeholder, the RJD’s unilateral move undermines the spirit of alliance politics.

Yadav’s assertion has fractured trust within the Mahagathbandhan. The Congress has reacted with palpable frustration, insisting on a fair allocation of winnable constituencies. In the last Bihar Assembly polls, the Congress contested 70 seats but won only 19 seats — making it the weakest-performing partner in the alliance. However, its leaders have argued that the party’s organisational strength and recent outreach efforts entitle it to a significant share of seats. This discord threatens to unravel the coalition’s unity at a critical juncture, as a fragmented Opposition could hand the JDU-BJP alliance an advantage in Bihar, where voter loyalties often hinge on coalition dynamics.

Yadav has heightened tensions within the Mahagathbandhan by insisting that the alliance will not contest the polls without declaring a chief ministerial face. In doing so, he has projected himself as the coalition’s de facto leader, sidestepping a debate crucial to preserving alliance unity.

However,  as Sonia Gandhi heads to Patna for the Congress Working Committee meet, backchannel talks with the RJD, the CPI(ML), and other allies are in full swing. Given her long-standing political equations with Lalu Prasad, there is growing buzz that the RJD may soften its claim on 144 seats and yield space to allies.

Meanwhile, it’s crucial to acknowledge that in a state where personality-driven politics often overshadows policy, Yadav’s solo push could erode the ‘coalition dharma’ that proved effective in past elections, such as the 2015 Assembly polls, when the Mahagathbandhan secured a landslide victory.

The ripple effects of Yadav’s strategy extend to smaller allies, who now find themselves further marginalised. The Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), led by Mukesh Sahani, have demanded a substantial share of seats — reportedly 40. Similarly, the CPI(ML), which contested 19 seats in 2020, is pushing for a larger role, arguing that its grassroots mobilisation on issues like land reforms and labour rights deserves recognition. 

However, the RJD’s sweeping claim to all 243 seats leaves little room for negotiation, risking defections or independent candidacies that could split the anti-JDU-BJP vote. Such fragmentation would play directly into the hands of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which has already begun capitalising on the Opposition’s disarray to project itself as a stable alternative.

Yadav’s gamble also carries significant risks for voter perception. As per a recent survey, Yadav remains the most preferred chief ministerial candidate, but his popularity has slipped from 40.6% in February to 35.5% in April. This reflects public discontent over persistent issues like unemployment, which remains a pressing concern in Bihar.

Bihar’s youth are increasingly frustrated with the lack of job opportunities, and the Mahagathbandhan’s inability to present a cohesive front could alienate these fence-sitters. The NDA, led by Kumar’s administrative experience and BJP’s organisational might, is poised to exploit this chaos, painting the Opposition as a disjointed group incapable of governance. 

The Congress’s experience in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh polls, where its go-it-alone strategy led to a dismal performance, serves as a cautionary tale. A similar misstep in Bihar could cost the Mahagathbandhan dearly, especially in a state where electoral success often hinges on consolidating anti-incumbency votes.

The timing of Yadav’s announcement is perplexing, coming on the heels of Gandhi’s yatra, which aimed to project unity. The RJD’s move has shifted the narrative from collective struggle to internal power struggles, undermining the momentum generated by Congress’s outreach. This could also embolden smaller players like the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) or even new entrants like Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj, who are eyeing opportunities to capitalise on the Opposition’s disunity. In a state where caste arithmetic and regional loyalties play a pivotal role, a fractured Mahagathbandhan risks diluting its appeal among key voter groups like the Yadavs, Muslims, and Dalits, who have historically backed the coalition.

The rift within Bihar’s Mahagathbandhan has implications that extend to the national Opposition. As the I.N.D.I.A. bloc struggles to present unity against the BJP, Bihar’s discord signals disarray that could weaken Opposition's credibility in 2025 and beyond. For Tejashwi Yadav, the crisis is personal — his leadership faces scrutiny as the RJD risks alienating allies. A failure to reconcile could allow the Congress or the CPI(ML) to gain ground. Unlike the NDA, which benefits from a clear hierarchy and unified messaging, the Mahagathbandhan risks implosion unless it agrees on seat-sharing and projects a cohesive vision, essential for survival in Bihar and relevance nationally.

Sayantan Ghosh is a research scholar and teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College (autonomous), Kolkata. X: @sayantan_gh.

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.