<p>Amongst various questions about capabilities and understanding that can be posed to Donald Trump, one pertains to his ability to understand the realm of security. Personal history is instructive to understand the Trump mind. When the United States of America was in the midst of the bloody Vietnam War and had mandated conscription for its Military, some entitled youth like Donald Trump dodged the draft. The otherwise fit youth who was actively playing tennis, golf, and football had suddenly claimed “bone spurs in his heels” and later, managed five deferments. Not one to have ever worn the ‘Uniform’ (31 out of 45 US presidents had been veterans), the term ‘Vietnam’ for the lothario was always contextualised to his licentious life. Once talking on the radio, Trump had infamously talked about his personal challenges in avoiding sexually transmitted diseases, “It is a dangerous world out there. It’s scary, like Vietnam. Sort of like the Vietnam era,” and had incredulously added, “I feel like a great and very brave soldier.”</p>.<p>Today, as the Commander-in-Chief of the world’s most powerful military, Trump presides and decides on matters pertaining to the security of the US, its ostensible allies, and other theatres. The institution of the US Armed Forces has historically been spared taints or considerations of partisanship, thereby ensuring the apolitical continuity of its personnel and policies. However, optics emanating in the initial phase of reassuming Presidentship are deeply disconcerting, with Trump sacking the highest-ranking US military officer, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Charles Q. Brown (he was to superannuate in 2027). The Trump purge has further included the Chief of Navy, the Vice Chief of Air Force, and top judge advocate generals who advise the institution from a legal perspective.</p>.<p>Even more dramatically on military allies like NATO or Ukraine, he has pushed the same under the proverbial bus, whilst seemingly batting for Putin’s Russia! Upping the ante after an ugly and public spat, Trump ordered a pause on all military aid to Ukraine, putting at risk the ability of Kyiv to defend itself against Moscow. Consequences for the US’ largest recipient of military support in the last couple of years i.e., Ukraine, could now be catastrophic.</p>.<p>The future is similarly questionable for yet another ally seeking support i.e., Taiwan, which was reassured in the Biden era that Washington DC had evolved from ‘strategic ambiguity’ to a position of firm commitment to defend Taiwan, should China attack. Now, Elbridge Colby as Trump’s defence nominee on Iran, Taiwan, and NATO has gone ‘soft’ on commitments and stated that Taiwan is “not an existential threat”. This adds to the sense of vulnerability of Taipei as a belligerent and expansionist Beijing breathes down its neck. Even other traditional allies like Canada, Australia, and Japan are facing the heat of a Trump redux that adds to an unprecedented sense of insecurity. If Canada is routinely taunted on its sovereignty (e.g., 51st US State), the Australian Foreign Minister admits to the looming challenges owing to a “very different American administration” and the Japanese are getting accused of manipulating their currencies lower! All in all, not only is the inner core of the American security apparatus affected by Trump’s recklessness, but even the one-time allies are sensing shaky support from the Trump administration. Seeing all this perhaps makes only Putin and Xi Jinping smile, as Trump has achieved within a few weeks, what they couldn’t, in years.</p>.<p>Deals over diplomacy</p>.<p>Where does this impulse leave India and its security calculations that are deeply connected to threats from China and lesser so, from Pakistan. Again, the conduct and evaluation of Trump’s reactions in his first Presidential tenure during the summer of 2020 when a dangerous stand-off on the Indo-Chinese borders was log-jammed, is pertinent. Importantly, Trump had earlier paid the usual homilies of ‘strategic allies’, had claimed personal chemistry with the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and held joint rallies in the US and India with much fanfare – but when the Indo-China borders bled, the businessman offered to ‘mediate’ and make ‘deals’! The so-called ‘pivot’ to China was left to handle the situation by itself, even as supplies of certain US arms and other military wherewithal were indeed expedited, but all that made commercial sense to the businessman. Nowhere was there any sense of US concern or moral intervention (let alone military) afforded to that dire moment, when the principal enemy of the US was involved in a violent action against a state that is credibly touted as its best bet to counter Chinese hegemonic instincts.</p>.<p>On the contrary, Trump had openly threatened sanctions against India when Delhi decided to buy the S-400 defence system from Russia (citing CAATSA) or when Delhi bought oil from Iran. In both cases, there was no plausible threat to any American interest, property, or personnel, with such moves, but Washington DC had flexed its muscle to kowtow India, exactly as it is doing to its other allies now.</p>.<p>With China still building its border infrastructure menacingly, continuously testing its border ‘salami tactics’, and relentlessly keeping militaristic pressure on all its neighbours, especially India – questions of support from the US in any future exigency, stare. Will portents of Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) policies ensure that the meek non-interventionist stance or its equally transactional ‘deal’ approach (as seen on Ukraine affairs) persist? If yes, as seems likely, then India needs to recalibrate its workings towards any future security scenario.</p>.<p>Tellingly, while the Indian Prime Minister did not get an invite to the Trump swearing-in ceremony, Xi Jinping did. If anything, in the last few weeks, the bully-at-large has gone against all purported allies and can only be said to have been accommodative and helpful to China and Russia. Everyone in NATO, QUAD (besides America), BRICS, UN, and other platforms of the ‘Free World’ ought to brace for a new security landscape, especially Delhi, which is in the direct line of fire with China.</p>.<p><br><em>(The writer is a former Lt Governor of Andaman and Nicobar and <br>Puducherry)</em></p>
<p>Amongst various questions about capabilities and understanding that can be posed to Donald Trump, one pertains to his ability to understand the realm of security. Personal history is instructive to understand the Trump mind. When the United States of America was in the midst of the bloody Vietnam War and had mandated conscription for its Military, some entitled youth like Donald Trump dodged the draft. The otherwise fit youth who was actively playing tennis, golf, and football had suddenly claimed “bone spurs in his heels” and later, managed five deferments. Not one to have ever worn the ‘Uniform’ (31 out of 45 US presidents had been veterans), the term ‘Vietnam’ for the lothario was always contextualised to his licentious life. Once talking on the radio, Trump had infamously talked about his personal challenges in avoiding sexually transmitted diseases, “It is a dangerous world out there. It’s scary, like Vietnam. Sort of like the Vietnam era,” and had incredulously added, “I feel like a great and very brave soldier.”</p>.<p>Today, as the Commander-in-Chief of the world’s most powerful military, Trump presides and decides on matters pertaining to the security of the US, its ostensible allies, and other theatres. The institution of the US Armed Forces has historically been spared taints or considerations of partisanship, thereby ensuring the apolitical continuity of its personnel and policies. However, optics emanating in the initial phase of reassuming Presidentship are deeply disconcerting, with Trump sacking the highest-ranking US military officer, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Charles Q. Brown (he was to superannuate in 2027). The Trump purge has further included the Chief of Navy, the Vice Chief of Air Force, and top judge advocate generals who advise the institution from a legal perspective.</p>.<p>Even more dramatically on military allies like NATO or Ukraine, he has pushed the same under the proverbial bus, whilst seemingly batting for Putin’s Russia! Upping the ante after an ugly and public spat, Trump ordered a pause on all military aid to Ukraine, putting at risk the ability of Kyiv to defend itself against Moscow. Consequences for the US’ largest recipient of military support in the last couple of years i.e., Ukraine, could now be catastrophic.</p>.<p>The future is similarly questionable for yet another ally seeking support i.e., Taiwan, which was reassured in the Biden era that Washington DC had evolved from ‘strategic ambiguity’ to a position of firm commitment to defend Taiwan, should China attack. Now, Elbridge Colby as Trump’s defence nominee on Iran, Taiwan, and NATO has gone ‘soft’ on commitments and stated that Taiwan is “not an existential threat”. This adds to the sense of vulnerability of Taipei as a belligerent and expansionist Beijing breathes down its neck. Even other traditional allies like Canada, Australia, and Japan are facing the heat of a Trump redux that adds to an unprecedented sense of insecurity. If Canada is routinely taunted on its sovereignty (e.g., 51st US State), the Australian Foreign Minister admits to the looming challenges owing to a “very different American administration” and the Japanese are getting accused of manipulating their currencies lower! All in all, not only is the inner core of the American security apparatus affected by Trump’s recklessness, but even the one-time allies are sensing shaky support from the Trump administration. Seeing all this perhaps makes only Putin and Xi Jinping smile, as Trump has achieved within a few weeks, what they couldn’t, in years.</p>.<p>Deals over diplomacy</p>.<p>Where does this impulse leave India and its security calculations that are deeply connected to threats from China and lesser so, from Pakistan. Again, the conduct and evaluation of Trump’s reactions in his first Presidential tenure during the summer of 2020 when a dangerous stand-off on the Indo-Chinese borders was log-jammed, is pertinent. Importantly, Trump had earlier paid the usual homilies of ‘strategic allies’, had claimed personal chemistry with the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and held joint rallies in the US and India with much fanfare – but when the Indo-China borders bled, the businessman offered to ‘mediate’ and make ‘deals’! The so-called ‘pivot’ to China was left to handle the situation by itself, even as supplies of certain US arms and other military wherewithal were indeed expedited, but all that made commercial sense to the businessman. Nowhere was there any sense of US concern or moral intervention (let alone military) afforded to that dire moment, when the principal enemy of the US was involved in a violent action against a state that is credibly touted as its best bet to counter Chinese hegemonic instincts.</p>.<p>On the contrary, Trump had openly threatened sanctions against India when Delhi decided to buy the S-400 defence system from Russia (citing CAATSA) or when Delhi bought oil from Iran. In both cases, there was no plausible threat to any American interest, property, or personnel, with such moves, but Washington DC had flexed its muscle to kowtow India, exactly as it is doing to its other allies now.</p>.<p>With China still building its border infrastructure menacingly, continuously testing its border ‘salami tactics’, and relentlessly keeping militaristic pressure on all its neighbours, especially India – questions of support from the US in any future exigency, stare. Will portents of Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) policies ensure that the meek non-interventionist stance or its equally transactional ‘deal’ approach (as seen on Ukraine affairs) persist? If yes, as seems likely, then India needs to recalibrate its workings towards any future security scenario.</p>.<p>Tellingly, while the Indian Prime Minister did not get an invite to the Trump swearing-in ceremony, Xi Jinping did. If anything, in the last few weeks, the bully-at-large has gone against all purported allies and can only be said to have been accommodative and helpful to China and Russia. Everyone in NATO, QUAD (besides America), BRICS, UN, and other platforms of the ‘Free World’ ought to brace for a new security landscape, especially Delhi, which is in the direct line of fire with China.</p>.<p><br><em>(The writer is a former Lt Governor of Andaman and Nicobar and <br>Puducherry)</em></p>
