Will Trump leave US society the way Gorbachev left the Soviet Union?

Most Americans live hand-to-mouth, even if their lives are better than in developing countries. When Trump takes away their jobs, their houses will be repossessed by lender banks, their cars will be taken away for not paying the EMIs. In short, their lives will collapse like in the Great Depression in the 1930s

What kind of country will Donald Trump leave behind when he completes his non-renewable tenure as President of the United States of America? Trump’s 100-minute-long first address on March 4 to a joint session of Congress gave no indication of any awareness that the US is a rich country of poor people.

The Pew Research Center, a non-partisan fact tank, estimates based on the latest figures that 4.19 crore (41.9 million) Americans survive on food stamps provided by the federal government. This programme is broadly similar to the free foodgrains supplied by the Indian government to 80.6 crore (806.7 million) people, as per figures placed in the Rajya Sabha in December. According to the US Census Bureau, 11.1% of the population in the US lived in poverty in 2023.

It is a myth that 65.6% of those who live in the US are homeowners. Similarly, they rarely own the cars they drive, the refrigerators in their kitchens, the television sets in their drawing rooms, or most of the expensive consumer items they use in daily life. Most things in US households are bought on credit with repayment in equated monthly instalments (EMIs). The Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimated in the fourth quarter of 2024 that household debt in the US soared to $18.04 trillion. An ever-increasing number of people in the US are only able to make minimum payments on their credit card dues. Their total debt in this column rose to a record $1.21 trillion in the last three months of 2024. Last month, a bipartisan Bill was introduced in the US Senate, which mentioned that as of 2023 the average US family owes credit card companies $21,000 in unpaid balances.

Why are these statistics about poverty and low-income in the US important in the context of Trump’s governance agenda? The president’s key adviser, billionaire Elon Musk, has prodded Trump to terminate the employment of tens of thousands of federal government workers. An end to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) in government and in the private sector — the US version of India’s education and employment reservations — has meant less privileged Americans will find it harder to get jobs.

In the US, a job is not just a place to go to work. When you lose your job, much else disappears with it. You lose your health insurance, three months of fully paid maternity leave for women planning a family, your ability to pay the mortgage on your home, and you can no longer repay automobile loans and other EMIs. Losing health insurance is the most devastating consequence of a job loss because healthcare in the US is the most expensive in the world. And, Americans are not exactly the healthiest people on earth. In short, your life is in a shambles overnight. Dreams turn into nightmares.

Americans are notorious for not saving enough. The US government’s Bureau of Economic Analysis says that in December average personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income was a mere 3.8%. According to the European Commission, the comparative savings rate in the Eurozone was 15.3% in the third quarter of 2024. A recent State Bank of India report said India’s savings rate was 30.2% last year, much higher than the global average.

What these figures establish is a little-known fact that most Americans actually live hand-to-mouth, even if their lives are better than in developing countries. When Trump takes away their jobs for whatever reasons, their houses will be repossessed by lender banks, their cars will be taken away for not paying the EMIs. In short, their lives will collapse like in the Great Depression in the 1930s. Inflation has already risen during the first month of Trump’s rule. The worst is yet to come.

Mikhail Gorbachev was the last leader of the Soviet Union. He had good intentions in introducing glasnost (openness) and the much-needed perestroika (restructuring) in his country. But the Soviet Union consequently became the graveyard of people’s hopes and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) dissolved and disappeared. What the Russian people endured thereafter — especially pensioners — was hell on earth. Until Vladimir Putin became Russia’s president nearly a decade later and began the country’s long and difficult recovery. What Putin got back for Russians in quality of life and economic well-being since he moved into the Kremlin is nothing short of a miracle.

Trump’s policies are shaping up in a way that Soviet history in the Mikhail Gorbachev-Boris Yeltsin years will be repeated. Their hopelessness is that the nature of American society does not permit the rise of a future American Putin to undo the damage done by Trump. The fate of the US under such circumstances could well be that of the Roman empire.

(K P Nayar has extensively covered West Asia and reported from Washington as a foreign correspondent for 15 years.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.