As South Korea Korea's impeached president Yoon awaits fate, his party sees signs of revival

Seoul: A prolonged period of uncertainty over the fate of impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and the botched attempt to arrest him are giving oxygen to his backers and reviving support for his troubled party.

Yoon, suspended from duties after his short-lived imposition of martial law on Dec.3 and under criminal investigation for possible insurrection, has for weeks been holed up inside his hill top residence in Seoul, guarded by a small army of personal security.

A National Barometer Survey poll released Thursday showed 59% of respondents want him arrested, something investigators are determined to do even though they failed last week after a widely televised six-hour standoff with his security. But 37% said arresting Yoon is excessive.

A similar split fell in favour of the Constitutional Court, which is currently deliberating over lawmakers' decision to impeach Yoon, to permanently remove him.

Analysts say the prospects of Yoon making a return to office are unclear but the hiatus has emboldened his loyal supporters, scores of whom braved sub-zero temperatures to gather near his residence on Thursday morning.

The weeks since Yoon's impeachment have also seen a recovery in support for his ruling People Power Party (PPP) which some analysts say shows signs conservatives are uniting to fight a possible presidential election later this year.

"It seems that the attempt to arrest Yoon has reinvigorated conservatives," said Mason Richey, a professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul.

He said that revival comes from both die-hard Yoon supporters, who back his reasons for declaring martial law including unsubstantiated allegations of election fraud, and those who are less supportive of Yoon but are concerned at the prospect of Lee Jae-myung, the liberal leader of the main opposition party, becoming president.

"If the arrest effort had succeeded, these conservatives would have been defeated for a second time, following impeachment, and that reinvigoration would possibly have been snuffed out quickly. The more that arrest attempts fail, the stronger reinvigorated conservatives will feel," said Richey.

A Realmeter poll released on Monday showed the PPP's approval rating was at 34.4%, up for three consecutive weeks. The approval rating of the main opposition Democratic Party, which commands a parliamentary majority and brought on Yoon's impeachment vote, stood higher at 45.2%.

South Korea is one of the most politically divided countries in the world along with the U.S., with 9 in 10 adults saying there are strong conflicts between people who support different political parties, a Pew Research survey in 2022 found.

Yoon supporters

Most pollsters in South Korea have stopped tracking Yoon's approval ratings since he was impeached by parliament, although some fringe polls have shown a rise in his personal support in recent days.

As he faces the prospect of another arrest attempt, his lawyers have remained defiant, alleging that the anti-corruption officers seeking his arrest do not have authority to investigate him for insurrection, even though a court has issued a warrant.

The lawyers, however, told reporters on Thursday that the Constitutional Court's decision on Yoon's political future will be accepted.

"President is still staying strong. He said he doesn't want people to suffer and public officials to suffer from this, but he can't accept illegal investigations." lawyer Seok Dong-hyeon, Yoon's confidant, told a crowd of Yoon supporters gathered outside his residence on Wednesday.

"Thank you, young people, for coming out to join here to save our country."

Jeremy Chan, senior analyst covering Northeast Asia at Eurasia Group, a U.S.-based political risk consultancy, said further attempts to arrest Yoon will likely only "galvanise" his support and that of his party.

Yoon's supporters are also drawing inspiration from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has previously made unsubstantiated claims of election fraud and faced a litany of legal troubles but made a stunning comeback in an election last year.

Some of Yoon's supporters have adopted the "Stop the Steal" slogan popularised by Trump's proponents to ramp up election fraud allegations against the country's election watchdog. Trump has not directly commented on Yoon's situation.

But Lee Jun-han, professor of political science at Incheon National University, said what is more likely guiding conservative voters to rally behind the party is the memory of the heavy election defeat after the impeachment of former conservative president Park Geun-hye in 2017.

"(Conservatives) saw a total destruction after the impeachment of Park Geun-hye," Lee said.