Bangladesh leader seen as likely next prime minister set to return from exile ahead of polls

Dhaka: The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) aims to gather five million supporters to welcome its leader Tarique Rahman home from nearly 17 years in ​exile on Thursday, a show of strength as he emerges as a leading contender for prime minister in February ‌elections.

Rahman (60), is the son of ailing former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and acting ⁠chairman of the party that is ‌widely expected to come out on top in the parliamentary vote set for February 12.

His return from London comes as his BNP is on the ascendant following the ouster of its arch foe, long-time Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, in a student-led uprising last year. Apart from brief transition administrations, Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina have alternated in power since 1991.

A December survey by ​the U.S.-based International Republican Institute suggests the BNP is on course to win the largest number of parliamentary seats, with the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami party also in the race. Hasina's Awami League party, which has been barred from the election, has threatened unrest that some fear could jeopardize the vote.

Rahman’s decision ‌to return is ‌driven by both political developments and personal circumstances. His mother has been seriously ill for months, prompting what party insiders describe as an urgent trip home.

'Defining political moment', BNP says

BNP leaders said they are preparing for what they call an “unprecedented” gathering in the capital, aiming to draw more than five million supporters along the route from the airport to the reception venue.

“This will be a defining political moment,” senior BNP leader Ruhul Kabir Rizvi said, ⁠adding that security arrangements are being closely coordinated with authorities to ensure order.

Rahman has ⁠lived in London since 2008 as he faced multiple criminal convictions at home including ‌for money laundering and in a case related to a plot to assassinate Hasina. He was, however, ‌acquitted of all charges after Hasina’s removal, clearing the legal barriers that had delayed his return.

BNP officials said he will travel directly from the airport to the reception venue before visiting his mother.

Youth party welcomes his return

Rahman's return comes ‍as the Muslim-majority South Asian nation of nearly 175 million people enters a sensitive election period under an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. The vote is widely viewed as crucial to restoring political stability after nearly two years of turmoil.

Bangladesh is at a crossroads, with Rahman’s return testing the BNP’s ability to mobilise peacefully and the interim administration’s promise to deliver a credible transfer of power. While the government has pledged a free and peaceful election, recent attacks on media outlets and sporadic violence have raised concerns about law enforcement.

The National Citizen Party (NCP), which emerged from the youth protest movement that toppled Hasina, said ​it views Rahman's return positively.

"Tarique Rahman was forced ‌into exile under severe pressure and threats, so his homecoming carries symbolic weight," said Khan Muhammad Mursalin, an NCP spokesperson. "His arrival will undoubtedly energize party leaders and supporters ... On the path to democracy, we will stand with him."