Zohran Mamdani’s victory sparks a moment of reckoning for Democrats

34-year-old Zohran Mamdani is the man of the moment in American politics. With his victory in New York City’s mayoral race, the charismatic Democratic Socialist becomes the first Muslim and the first Indian-origin mayor-elect of the US’ biggest city  — both identities he proudly embraces. But how did Mamdani triumph in the age of Trump?

Mamdani ran a carefully thought-out campaign. Soon after Trump’s victory, as a New York Assemblyman, he went out on the streets asking people why they voted for Trump. He realised that the economy and affordability were the major issues for the city’s voters. In New York, one in four residents lives in poverty, while one in twenty-four is a millionaire — a sign of the sharp, Dickensian economic inequality in the city. Mamdani tapped into this discontent about inequality and the rising cost of living.

He framed his race as one between working-class New Yorkers and billionaires and landlords. So, he ran a campaign to make New York more affordable and safer for the city’s middle and working classes. He promised to freeze rent for four years on the city’s one million rent-stabilised apartments, establish a network of city-owned grocery stores across New York’s five boroughs, make public buses free and faster, lower the cost of childcare, create a department of community safety, and increase the minimum wage from $16.50 per hour to $30 per hour by 2030.

He plans to finance these initiatives by raising the corporate tax rate from 7.25% to 11.5% and adding a flat 2% tax on residents earning more than $1 million a year. Mamdani ran a multicultural campaign that galvanised social media, with younger voters finding him authentic and relatable, partly because of his own age. More importantly, he managed to connect with a diverse coalition of young and working-class people from different backgrounds, with over 90,000 volunteers campaigning door-to-door for free. He also broke fundraising records, drawing heavily from small donors, reminiscent of Bernie Sanders’s campaign. Mamdani’s brand of left-wing populism seems to have worked, as evidenced by the highest voter turnout in New York City’s mayoral elections in more than 50 years.

However, his victory was far from easy; it was a hard-fought campaign. He faced many obstacles. In several ways, he was an unlikely candidate: an immigrant at a time when immigrants are being deported, a Muslim in a city with around 10 per cent Jewish residents, and a critic of Israel. Billionaires poured millions of dollars into his opponents’ campaign funds. He was called inexperienced and received little institutional support from his party, except from Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Yet, he also had advantages — he is young, media-savvy, articulate, and campaigned in a city that remains a Democratic stronghold.

Mamdani’s victory is also a moment of soul-searching for the Democratic Party as it decides its path forward: will it move further Left, or will the establishment ensure it stays moderate? Mamdani himself has said this is the heart of the battle for the party’s future. The Democrats also won governorships with strong margins in New Jersey and Virginia, and secured the passage of Proposition 50 in California. Both new governors are moderate Democrats, though they too focussed on cost-of-living issues during their campaigns. However, these are traditionally blue-leaning states, though Virginia’s governorship was wrested from the Republicans.

Trump’s response to these Democratic victories was that they won only because his name was not on the ballot. However, polls show his favourability has been declining, with a net approval rating of -18 per cent, -7 per cent for immigration handling, and -33 per cent for inflation and pricing. Ironically, immigration and inflation were the very issues Trump had won on. His ratings among key demographics, such as Latino,s have also dropped. The signs are therefore slightly favourable for Democrats heading into the mid-term polls in November. Yet, they will need to mobilise their base and focus on voters’ core concerns. Mamdani has shown how this can be done. The question is whether the Democrats have the will to change and unite their progressive and moderate wings before the midterms.

Mamdani’s victory gives Trump new rhetorical ammunition to warn of a radical shift within the Democratic Party. However, this argument is unlikely to resonate with voters unless he can effectively address inflation.

In India, Mamdani’s win was closely followed, not just because of his Indian roots but also due to his past comments critical of India, which drew backlash from some Indian American groups. The key takeaway is that India cannot view its diaspora as a monolithic bloc that will always support it uncritically.

Mamdani may have won the election, but he now faces major challenges — not least President Donald Trump himself. Trump has made his disdain for Mamdani clear, repeatedly calling him a communist and even threatening to withhold federal funds if he won. Mamdani, for his part, has held his ground and has not shied away from confronting Trump. In his victory speech, he told Trump to “turn the volume up!” Trump responded on social media: “...AND SO IT BEGINS!” It remains to be seen whether Trump follows through on his threats — and how Mamdani responds.

Another challenge is whether Mamdani can deliver on his ambitious promises. Many economists have warned that his plans may not make economic sense and could cost much more than anticipated. Moreover, he will need support from the Democratic establishment, which still seems wary of fully embracing him. For instance, New York Governor Kathy Hochul has already said she will not back his plans to tax the wealthy. There are also limits to his mayoral authority. Finally, Mamdani’s limited administrative experience raises the question of whether he can successfully transition from talker to doer. If he does, he could well reshape America’s political landscape.

(The writer teaches at the Centre for the Study of the Americas, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.)