Modi’s ‘Act East’ signal

India has signalled the importance that the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) will occupy in the foreign policy of the second term of the Narendra Modi government by inviting leaders of its member-states to Modi’s swearing-in ceremony. In 2014, Modi had used the inauguration of his first term to signal the priority he accorded to India’s neighbourhood by inviting leaders of the South Asian neighbours. In addition to BIMSTEC leaders, the President of the Kyrgyz Republic, which is the current chair of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO), and Mauritius, an Indian Ocean archipelago with strategic importance to India, are expected to grace the event. India has done well to use the swearing-in event for its outreach to regional organisations and countries that could help India realise its growing global economic and strategic ambitions.

BIMSTEC, which comprises Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Nepal and Bhutan besides India, was set up to act as a bridge between South and Southeast Asia. India’s pivoting from SAARC to BIMSTEC is likely to have been motivated by the fact that co-operation within SAARC has been a non-starter, with Pakistan’s hostility towards India standing in the way of meaningful co-operation among South Asian countries. Consequently, BIMSTEC was founded in 1997 and India turning to it for regional co-operation is a smart move. Several BIMSTEC countries are participants in China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative. Many are Bay of Bengal littorals, too. Given India’s mounting concern over the possibility of BRI countries giving China access, even military access to the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean, Delhi’s stepping up of engagement with BIMSTEC could help it counter Beijing’s rising influence in the neighbourhood. Similarly, India, which only recently became a full-fledged member of the SCO, is hoping to expand its economic and other influence in Central Asia and beyond. Using the swearing-in event for diplomatic outreach will give the new government an early start to achieve foreign policy goals.

It does seem that Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan will not figure in the guest list, signalling that the Modi government is not yet ready to normalise relations with Pakistan post-Pulwama. The swearing-in ceremony would have provided Modi an opportunity to meet Khan and shake hands without having to engage in talks. It could have served as an ice-breaker. The two leaders are expected to attend the SCO summit next month. That would be another opportunity for India and Pakistan to break the ice. Meanwhile, Delhi and Islamabad should revive back-channel diplomacy. Looking to other options for regional co-operation is fine but not talking to a neighbour, especially a troublesome one like Pakistan, will not serve India’s interest in the long term.