Commerce ministry may face possible repeat of 2011 trade data error

New Delhi: The commerce ministry this time around may witness a repeat of 2011 when a discrepancy of about USD 9 billion was detected in the trade data for the April-November period.

This time, the issue involves suspected errors in calculating gold import figures for November 2024.

In 2011, there was over-reporting of export data on account of miss-classifications and double counting due to problems in the computer software, which was getting upgraded.

Noticing an unusual surge in the gold imports in November this year, pushing the country's trade deficit to a record, a commerce ministry official on Wednesday said that DGCIS (Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics) has taken up detailed examination of the gold import data and reconciliation would be done with the data received by CBIC (Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs).

The country's gold imports in November reached a record high of USD 14.86 billion, registering a four-fold increase, mainly on account of festival and wedding demands. The jump in gold imports pushed the trade deficit (the difference between imports and exports) to a record USD 37.84 billion in November.

Trade experts and jewellers have mixed opinions on the matter, with some suspecting a possible error in the data compilation, while others are stating that double-counting is "very" unlikely.

The downward correction in import data, if any, would lower the trade deficit figures, they added.

"The gold import data in November looks different. It should not be this much high," an official of the gems and jewellery industry said.

However, a trade expert said that it is "very" unlikely that the bill of entry data has been double-counted.

Economic think tank GTRI said there is speculation that some gold imported may have been double-counted.

However, gold entering the Indian border through a bill of entry filed at Customs alone is the country's import, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said, adding that movements within the country, such as for use in SEZs, EOUs (export oriented units), or Gift City, should not qualify as imports and should not be included in total import data.

"DGCI&S and CBIC may need to verify if there has been any deviation from this practice. The government must address these concerns to ensure trust in data integrity," GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said.

A major challenge for economic analysts is the lack of detailed data, he added.

"While India has an excellent system for capturing and sharing trade data at a granular level, its production data, managed by MOSPI (Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation) or ASI (Annual Survey of Industries), is outdated and cannot be integrated with trade data. This leaves trade negotiators without a clear understanding of domestic production performance for specific products," Srivastava said.

Exports and imports take place mainly from two places -- airports and seaports. SEZ (special economic zones) numbers are counted separately as these zones are treated as foreign entities in terms of provisions related to customs.

All exporters fill shipping bills as per customs rules before a consignment is ready for imports/exports. Export data is collected from that bill as all the details are there. And for imports, there is a bill of entry.

There is a process of online filling of shipping bills/bills of entry through the customs portal. There are various export points in India. Units in SEZ follow the process through their portal integrated with the customs platform.

The Indian Customs EDI System (ICES) is now operational at 245 major customs locations, handling nearly 98 per cent of India's international trade in terms of import and export consignments.

Small and non-EDI ports, where data collection happens manually, cover only 2 per cent of the trade.

All the data then comes to the server of ICEGATE.

The Indian Customs Electronic Gateway (ICEGATE) is the national portal of Indian Customs of the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) that provides e-filing services to trade, cargo carriers and other trading partners electronically.

Through this facility, Indian Customs offers a host of services, including electronic filing of the bill of entry (import goods declaration), shipping bills (export goods declaration), and e-payment of customs duty.

ICEGATE is internally linked with multiple partner agencies including the RBI, banks, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), and the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S).

DGCI&S, an arm of the commerce ministry, takes data from ICEGATE. Non-EDI ports' data directly comes to the DGCI&S. Kolkata-based DGCI&S is the official organisation for the collection, compilation and dissemination of India's trade statistics and commercial information.

About 70,000 exporters and importers account for India's 90 per cent trade.

DGCI&S receives raw data from Customs authorities at ports, airports, and land borders, detailing goods traded, their values, quantities, origin or destination countries, and Harmonized System (HS) codes.

The EDI system automates data transfer from customs to DGCI&S for timely and accurate processing. DGCI&S checks the data for errors, inconsistencies, and duplication, applying validation techniques to ensure accuracy.

The data is categorised by HS codes, commodities, sectors, and trading partners, and aggregated into monthly, quarterly, and annual reports, including details on specific product categories and bilateral trade.

Processed data is analysed to provide insights on trade performance, trends, and deficits or surpluses.

The finalised data is published on the Ministry of Commerce website and in reports like the Monthly Statistics of Foreign Trade of India and the Foreign Trade Statistics of India. Key information is also shared with policymakers, researchers, and international organisations and made available through the DGCI&S portal.