Higher demand, lower inflation to drive annual growth: CII

India Inc is confident of sustaining the revival in private investment, and is hopeful that robust domestic drivers, including consumption and inflation, and the stability in the financial system will drive growth in the current financial year (FY24).

These are the findings of the latest quarterly Business Outlook Survey by Confederation of Indian Industries (CII). The industry body surveyed more than 180 companies, 64 per cent of which belonged to the micro, small and medium enterprises sector.

“The 123rd CII Business Confidence Index (CII- BCI) improved to a reading of 66.1 in the first quarter (Apr-June FY24) as compared to 64 in the previous quarter, however it remained lower than the reading of 66.9 in the same quarter last year,” said CII in its survey report. The reading for the latest quarter was also lower than 67.6 reading in the October-December FY23 quarter.

The survey’s respondents noted that the robust capex momentum of the government, strong domestic drivers and robust financial system will be the top three drivers of growth in the current fiscal.

“The positive momentum seen in CII Business Confidence Index in the first quarter of the current fiscal is encouraging and reiterates the on-ground experience of most of the industry players. The improvement in demand has translated into an improvement in capacity utilisation in many sectors which will lend further impetus to private capex this year”, said Chandrajit Banerjee, Director General, CII.

“An overwhelming majority of respondents (65 per cent) are of the view that the fresh sightings in private investment will be sustained in the current fiscal. There are several factors which are driving private capex such as deleveraged corporate balance sheets, which has in turn increased the capacity of the corporates to invest once there is clear visibility on demand,” Banerjee said.

About 63 per cent of the survey’s respondents expected GDP growth to come in a range of 6-7 per cent in the current fiscal, broadly in line with the 6.5 per cent forecast of RBI and other multilateral agencies.
The survey results also show that 62 per cent of respondents expect muted global growth and geopolitical turbulence as the key business concerns in the current fiscal.

“The interest rate pause by the RBI is expected to bring down the cost of capital for the India Inc, thus fuelling fresh investments and giving private capex a further leg-up,” the CII report stated.

It said that there were already signs of increase in capacity utilisation of the respondent companies, with more than half (52 per cent) expecting it to stand in a range of 75-100 per cent in the Apr-June quarter. Utilization above 70 per cent compels companies to invest further in capacity expansion.