Swat analysis

The situation in Swat following the Pakistan army’s military offensive on Taliban fighters is alarming. The government has claimed early victories. The army has said it has killed around 900 of the Taliban’s estimated 7,000 militants and the Taliban appears to be on the run.  However, it is likely that the Taliban fighters have simply melted away, instead of incurring heavy losses by fighting the better-armed Pakistan army. It is possible that the Taliban fighters are escaping, as civilians flee the fighting zone to Pakistan’s cities. The government must be prepared for deadly attacks there.

While all eyes are focused on the outcome of the military offensive against the Taliban, it is the unfolding humanitarian crisis that could emerge as a larger threat. Around 1.17 million Pashtuns are said to have been uprooted from Bajaur, Mohmand and Swat over the past week. They will join another half-a-million people displaced in earlier fighting in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP).  Many of the displaced have fled to cities like Lahore, Karachi and Islamabad. The Pashtun influx into these cities will alter local demographic patterns. The pressure they will put on crumbling urban infrastructure could trigger ethnic conflicts. The Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM), a Mohajir outfit which engaged in bloody battles on the streets of Karachi for several years, has made it clear that it will not tolerate Pashtuns clamouring for a share of local resources. It has promised to deal severely with Taliban fighters should they slip into Karachi along with displaced Pashtuns. The bloodletting has already begun in Karachi.

Many of those fleeing the war zone have complained about the army’s use of excessive military force. The army’s imposition of curfew has added to public anger as people are unable to flee the fighting and are trapped. The Taliban and other religious extremist groups will tap into this rage and resentment. It is said that members of the Jamat-ud Dawa, a front organization of the Lashkar-e-Toiba, are actively involved in distributing relief in the camps for the displaced. There is a danger too that money and relief supplies meant for the displaced will find its way into the hands of the Taliban and other extremist outfits. Pakistan and the international community must ensure that this does not happen.