John Kerry's tough first foreign tour

in perspective

On tour, Kerry proclaimed a policy shift towards the Syrian civilians and armed opposition.

John Kerry’s first foreign tour as US Secretary of State is mission impossible.  His meetings in London, Paris, Rome and Ankara focused on the brutal conflict destroying Syria while his visit to Cairo dealt mainly with Egypt's political polarisation and economic melt-down. On both the Syrian and Egyptian fronts the US, the global hyper-power, is expected to adopt decisive policies, take the lead, and resolve these issues.

But the US is no longer a hyper-power and is mired in multiple political and economic miseries. Unable to put its own house in order, Washington can hardly halt Syria’s war or ease Egypt’s turmoil.

The failure of the US Afghan and Iraq wars to transform these countries into secure states with democratic governments has made US citizens war weary and opposed to foreign military adventures. And, with Democrats and Republicans disputing the budget and cutting domestic expenditure, the Obama administration is in no position to offer either Syria or Egypt massive financial aid.    
On tour, Kerry proclaimed a policy shift towards the Syrian civilians and armed opposition. He said the US would directly provide $60 million - hardly the sum needed - in battlefield rations, medical supplies, and training for the rebels. They have been demanding flack jackets and armoured vehicles from the US and anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons from Britain and France.

Band-aids and bars

Critics of the US stance have called Kerry’s offer “band-aids and bars,” i.e., bandages and meals-ready-to-eat which are pressed into bars. Kerry also pledged to help the opposition Syrian National Coalition establish local councils and administrative institutions in the areas of Syria under rebel control. Touted as a major shift in policy because the US will deal openly with both rebels and the Coalition, the change is more cosmetic than substantive and involves concealment, sleight of hand and hypocrisy. 

For more than a year, the US has been - via Turkey - shipping communications equipment and medical aid to the rebels and hundreds of US troops and intelligence agents have been deployed in Turkey and Jordan to provide logistical support and training for rebel fighters.
While refusing to arm the rebels, Washington has encouraged Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar to supply assault rifles, anti-tank weapons, machine guns, grenade launchers, and mortars. A large shipment of such weapons originating in Croatia was delivered in January to non-jihadi groups, enabling the rebels to make territorial advances in the north and north-east.  Washington says it does not provide arms because they could fall into the hands of jihadi groups, notably Jabhat al-Nusra, but these factions, the most effective in battle, are getting arms from the Saudis and Qataris in any case.

European Union (EU) countries have not shipped arms to the rebels due to an embargo but under pressure from Britain and France, staunch rebel supporters, the embargo could be eased or lifted when it is reconsidered in May.

Kerry’s mission has been made all the more impossible because the administration has put its trust in the Muslim Brotherhood in both Syria and Egypt. The Syrian Brotherhood, outlawed for decades, dominates the National Coalition while the Egyptian Brotherhood, the country’s main organised political force, has taken power through reasonably fair elections. In both countries, the Brotherhood, an underground movement inexperienced in management and dismissive of power-sharing, is under severe challenge. 

The US has opted for the Brotherhood because Washington believes it could stabilise both Syria and Egypt but secularists, Christians, Shias and many Sunnis reject the US assumption. A substantial proportion of the Syrian populace continues to support President Bashar al-Assad, in spite of his government’s brutal crackdown on dissent.

In Egypt, two key leaders of the opposition National Salvation Front, Nobel laureate Muhammad El-Baradei and socialist Hamdeen Sabahi, rejected invitations to meet Kerry who has urged the Front to reconsider a boycott of phased parliamentary elections scheduled to begin in April. The Front argues that the constitution and electoral law, both drafted by the Brotherhood, give fundamentalists advantages and are anti-democratic.

Cairo’s US embassy, surrounded by blast walls, barbed wire, and police in body armour closed while Kerry was in town.  He was not welcome. US insistance on cuts in fuel and grain subsidies and other austerity measures in exchange for $4.8 billion in International Monetary Fund (IMF) aid has already enraged poor Egyptians suffering from insecurity and economic collapse which many are blaming on the Brotherhood.

While Saudi Arabia and Qatar were included in Kerry’s tour, the West Asian countries he skipped are significant because all three - Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq - are being destabilised by the conflict in Syria and have expressed alarm over Washington’s apparent indifference to the regional risks posed by the Brotherhood-driven rebellion in that country.