THE BJP ON A ROLL IN STATE: A bittersweet verdict

The bittersweet judgment of the just-concluded general elections means a Congress-led coalition has been given a majority large enough to continue its work at the Centre, but served a warning that if it wants to hold on to its share of the country’s progressive vote, it has to remake its fraying coalition and change in important respects. BJP’s reduced presence means it will need to practice co-operation and consensus.

As the BJP’s best performance was mainly in two states — Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh, the jubilation was agreeably palpable in Karnataka, where the party’s government is in harness and the main Opposition Congress has come a poor second in the election. The BJP, under the leadership of Chief Minister B S Yeddyurappa has, indeed, delivered its best tally of Lok Sabha seats in the state so far, winning 19 out of the total 28 seats. The party’s previous best was 18 seats in 2004 and 13 in 1998.

The ruling party also managed to confine the Congress’ success to a mere six seats and live up to its promise of throwing up some sheer “surprises” by winning over Congress strongholds and retaining its hold over the coastal belt, where public sentiment was thought to be anti-BJP after the church and pub attacks.

BJP central leaders Arun Jaitley and Venkaiah Naidu, however, were quite sober about the party’s win during their stopover in Bangalore to hail Team Yeddyurappa and the winning MPs. They said the BJP would be content to occupy the non-Congress space in the Lok Sabha and provide an effective Opposition. In contrast, the more exuberant chief minister’s camp followers, were intent on a stronger self-endorsement. A CM confidante was heard saying  Yeddyurappa could well qualify as “prime minister material” now.

The remark may be passed off as gushing, but not the euphoria as Team Yeddyurappa earned it all the way. True, the BJP threw far more money, resource and personnel into the arena than Congress could ever match. Intra-party criticism of Yeddyurappa’s dominating style and nepotism was also loud enough.

Yet, it has to be conceded that the government’s implementation of various populist and development programmes, including the free bicyles for school children programme and the scheme to protect the welfare of the girl child, must have appealed to the grassroot voters, a segment which mostly remained alienated from the BJP so far.

Myth explodes

Vis-a-vis BJP’s success in the state, the Congress has come a poor second, winning just six seats, down from eight in 2004. The Congress calculation that it could take the minorities and other backward classes for granted because they had nowhere else to go, has been exploded. The Muslims stayed neutral and did not come out to vote in a big way, it is said. In some other constituencies like Tumkur, the OBC vote went the BJP way in the absence of a strong and sustained challenge from the Congress, a section of partymen argue.

But this argument is challenged by some others who argue that  Muslim votes did help the Congress impressive win in Uttar Pradesh, while the party lost some seats in north Karnataka where it enjoyed assured OBC votes. The winning margin in some other seats with a significant OBC voter population was wafer thin, they point out. “The social engineering of the party has gone awry,” taunt some Congressmen, noting that merely appointing a president and a working president from the forward castes does not cut ice with the voters. The party has to reach out to the larger population and not just to its perceived vote bank, the leaders contend.

Post-poll analysis, euphoria and lamentations apart, the immediate challenge before the two main parties — the BJP and the Congress is the upcoming elections to local bodies, including the premier Bruhat Bangalore Mahanagara Palike.

The Congress suspicion until now was that the BJP was trying to buy time and put off the elections on the pretext of resorting to fresh delimitation to increase the number of wards. Considering BJP’s sweet success in the Lok Sabha polls, the  ruling party will try to cash in on the prevailing voter mood and may not delay the civic polls.

Another important proposal put on hold was direct election to the post of mayor and enhancing the term to five years from the present one year. The proposal met with vociferous opposition from some of Yeddyurappa’s cabinet colleagues, who did not fancy the mayor growing more powerful than the ministers and turning into a virtual ‘City chief minister’. The proposal may be revived after the elections, considering the CM’s increased clout after the LS electoral success, believe some party insiders. The immediate task before the underdog Congress, therefore, is to restore morale within the party and create a vision to meet the BJP challenge ahead.