Many issues cloud Netanyahu speech

The topic is to be Iran which, he claims is determined to obtain nuclear weapons and attack Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may have misjudged the impact on Israeli voters when he challenged US President Barack Obama over Iran’s nuclear programme. Netanyahu mounted this challenge by persuading Israeli ambassador in Washington Ron Dermer, a former US citizen and Republican organiser, to convince John Boehner, US House speaker, to invite the Israeli leader (Netanyahu) to address a joint session of Congress.

The topic of the address is to be Iran which, he claims is determined to obtain nuclear weapons and, ultimately, attack Israel. However, according to documents leaked this week to The Guardian and al-Jazeera, Israel's external intelligence agency, Mossad, has contradicted Netanyahu, saying Iran has not been pursuing the weapons option.

This could undercut his speech to Congress on March 3, two weeks ahead of the Israeli parliamentary election and three weeks before the deadline for a framework agreement between Iran and the US and its five negotiating partners. Netanyahu insists that Iran must scrap its nuclear programme, on which Tehran has spent billions of dollars over the past half century.

The US, UK, Russia, China, France and Germany argue the aim of the deal will be to curb Iran’s programme and subject it to stringent monitoring in order to prevent Tehran reaching the “break out” stage which would enable it to manufacture nuclear weapons within a year. Iran insists it simply wants to provide nuclear fuel for power plants and medical uses.

Boehner's invitation, issued without White House clearance, has led to a boycott of the event by top officials, prompted 23 Democratic party lawmakers to urge postponement, and elicited strong criticism from US and Israeli commentators. Netanyahu has been accused of trying to torpedo the negotiations at a critical stage while gaining votes from the Israeli electorate by hyping the threat of a so-far non-nuclear Iran.

His strategy seems to have backfired at least to a certain extent and for the present.  A Jerusalem Post opinion poll showed that Netanyahu's Likud party had dropped three seats - from 25 to 22 - and its main rival, the Zionist Union, had retained 24 seats in the 120 member parliament.

The Likud appears to have lost ground due, partly, to revelations financial misconduct and, partly, to his rift with Washington. Israelis count on the US as their main, even sole friend and ally and are extremely uncomfortable when there is a strain in relations. Sixty per cent of respondents said they did not want Netanyahu to remain prime minister. Writing in the Jerusalem Post, right-wing columnist Caroline Glick argued that the real contest in the Israeli election is between Netanyahu and Obama.

Meanwhile, a CNN survey revealed that 63 per cent of US citizens believe Boehner should not have issued the invitation without consulting Obama and 66 per cent argues that the US should not take sides in the Palestine-Israel conflict. It is significant that 56 per cent above 50 years and 75 per cent blow that age said the US should stay neutral in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. These figures appear to show a shift in US opinion away from Israel if not towards Palestine.

Palestinian issue

By trying to defeat and humiliate Obama, Netanyahu has also angered the 69 per cent of US Jews who voted for the president in the 2012 election and continue to support his policies. Netanyahu had previously upset many when he openly declared for Obama’s Republican rival in that contest and because, since then, Netanyahu has scuppered US efforts to broker an agreement for the emergence of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. Instead, Netanyahu has accelerated Israeli colonisation of land Palestinians demand for their state.

The majority of US Jews are liberals who favour the “two state solution.” The leftist US Jewish Tikkun movement and Israeli peacemaker Uri Avneri have launched a “No, Mr Netanyahu” campaign while the liberal Jewish lobby group, “J Street,” has called for unprecedented public protests against his Congressional speech.

Nevertheless, Netanyahu can count on the support of the powerful US lobby, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), which was politically coopted by his Likud party during the 1980s. Although enjoying the support of a minority in the Jewish community, APIAC has wielded near total power over both houses of the US Congress and has full backing of major US Jewish donors who fund Congressional campaign chests. 

Netanyahu is set to precede his address to Congress with his traditional speech to the
annual AIPAC conference, convening from March 1-3 and drawing thousands of Jewish community leaders from all over the country to Washington for three days of events. With AIPAC, Netanyahu is on safe ground.

The White House, however, seeks an agreement over Iran's nuclear programme because Washington needs to normalise relations and coordinate with Tehran in the belated military campaign against radical jihadis in Iraq and Syria who are rapidly expanding across West Asia and North Africa.