Copious monsoon forecast, a big relief

The India Meteorological Department’s prediction of a copious monsoon this year should bring relief to everyone. Rains are mixed with cheers and desire in individual memory, and they are particularly welcome after two years of inadequate monsoon which caused a severe drought in many parts of the country. The economic, social and human impact of the drought is still in full play, with suicide, misery and destitution sweeping over families and villages. A bountiful monsoon will hopefully change the scene. The met office has predicted an above normal monsoon, which is 6% more than the long period average of 89 cm. An above normal monsoon has been predicted for the first time since 1999. Some private weather forecasters have also predicted a better than average monsoon this year, which supports the IMD’s reading.

A good monsoon will lift agriculture and improve farm output. It will reduce distress, put money in the hands of farmers and workers and boost rural demand. It can raise overall sentiment and investment. Sectors like consumer goods and farm machinery can especially look forward to better times. Successive droughts have broken the back of the rural economy and so governments will have to extend support to farmers in buying seeds, fertilisers etc. While there is the prospect of a good monsoon, the country will have to be ready to face some imponderables also. The IMD expects the rainfall to be well distributed nationally. But this need not be the case. Even an above normal rainfall may not always give the best results on the farm front. The spatial and temporal distribution of rain is crucial in this respect. An above average national rainfall may not mean that the best farming regions or states will get good rainfall or that the farms will get rain at the right time. It is necessary to provide for such eventualities also. The IMD has not yet developed the expertise to make predictions for the micro level, which will actually be more useful for farmers.

Apart from the chances of a good monsoon, there are other indicators of a turnaround in the economy. There is a fall in inflation, and industrial production has increased. The RBI has helped with an interest rate cut. Agriculture does not contribute much to the national economy and the GDP now, but large numbers of people are dependent on it. That makes the behaviour of the monsoon a major economic factor. More effective prediction facilities, better irrigation and water conservation projects and changes in crop patterns are needed to manage the monsoon better.