As soon as the bypoll schedule for the Shahdol Lok Sabha seat and Nepanagar Assembly constituency in Madhya Pradesh was announced last month, political temperature in the state went up. The ruling BJP’s state leadership wasn’t complacent about the elections as it had got feedback from the ground that the fight could be tough – especially for the crucial Shahdol seat.
Even after successive losses in three Assembly elections over the last 13 years, apart from defeats in urban bodies and other local polls, the Congress seemed optimistic because of several reasons. The party had reached its nadir when it could win just two seats out of 29 in the Lok Sabha election in 2014.
But when the last Lok Sabha bypoll was held in tribal-dominated Jhabua in 2015, Congress’ Kantilal Bhuria had won the election. Now, Shahdol, another tribal-dominated constituency in the eastern part of the state, was going to polls (apart from Nepanagar Assembly seat) and the Congress again fancied its chances.
Unlike other social groups, tribals seemed to be returning to the Congress fold. It was the first election after demonetisation, and the party hoped that this would also go against the BJP. The Congress leaders hoped that anti-incumbency against the BJP government would work in its favour. Besides, they felt that the Vyapam scam had dented Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s image to some extent and it would help them as well.
The Shahdol election was necessitated due to the death of BJP MP Dalpat Singh Paraste. The BJP had sensed that the fight was going to be tough and it the fielded seasoned Gyan Singh, a state minister, as its candidate against the Congress’ Himadri Singh, daughter of former Union minister Dalbir Singh.
While senior Congress leaders campaigned extensively in Shahdol, Chouhan too made the election a prestige point and addressed dozens of rallies. In speeches after speeches, he told the electorate that when they would go out to vote, they should think that they were voting for him and for strengthening his hands.
The BJP comfortably won at both the places. In Shahdol Lok Sabha seat, Gyan Singh won by over 60,000 votes. In Nepanagar Assembly constituency, BJP’s Manju Dadu, 27, was the party candidate against Congress leader Antar Singh Barde. Manju’s father Rajendra Dadu was the sitting BJP MLA and the bypoll was held due to his death. Manju defeated the Congress candidate by a margin of over 42,000 votes.
After the win, Chouhan said that the victory was because of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s policies. MP Congress president Arun Yadav said that he accepted the people’s mandate. For Congress, it was again rejection by the electorate.
“It is Shivraj factor, which helps BJP. The party doesn’t have any other face but Shivraj Chouhan strikes a chord with voters due to his image,” a Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) functionary admitted.
“Despite the Vyapam scam and several other controversies, Shivraj Chouhan remains a popular face. Congress can’t win unless there is a strong leadership. Either Jyotiraditya Scindia or Kamal Nath need to be projected ahead of the next Assembly polls as the party’s CM candidate, if we are serious about polls”, he said.
The defeat is again likely to raise the issue of a weak leadership. Of late, there have been murmurs of discontent about Arun Yadav, who is the current state Congress president.
Faction politics
Insiders say that when bigwigs like Digvijaya Singh, Kamal Nath and Scindia don’t even listen to his call and skip crucial PCC meets, how can the party be expected to function as a cohesive unit and put up a strong fight against the BJP, which has a strong organisation in the state.
The BJP leaders were satisfied with the win but were worried over the declining victory margin. In the earlier Lok Sabha election, the BJP had won the seat by a margin of over 2.4 lakh votes but the margin was reduced to 60,000 in the bypoll.
The BJP workers themselves say that apart from Modi’s strong following, it is the chief minister whose image helps them in the state polls, and that no other leader is so popular across different sections of the population.
The party has been in power in MP since 2003, when Uma Bharti led the BJP to a resounding win after 10 years of Digvijaya Singh’s rule. After her short stint as the CM, Babulal Gaur succeeded her.
Subsequently, Chouhan took over the reins in 2005. Since then, he has led the BJP to victories in the Assembly polls in 2008 and 2013. The next Assembly election is two years from now.
The present results clearly indicate that the ruling party is still on a strong wicket in Madhya Pradesh. As far as the Congress is concerned, it needs to get its house in order. The high command might have to take tough decisions soon if it is serious about its chances in the next Assembly elections.
(The writer is a senior journalist based in Bhopal)
Published 28 November 2016, 18:34 IST