Monsoon to hit central India between June 14-22

The Southwest monsoon will hit central India between June 14 and 22, a German research institute predicted on Monday.

On the basis of their early forecast method, scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research claimed that monsoon is likely to set over the central part of India and the Eastern Ghats on or around June 18 with an error margin of four ­days.

The prediction comes with 73% probability. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is yet to come out with its forecast on the onset of monsoon on the Kerala coast. “The long-range forecast of the onset and withdrawal dates of monsoon rainfall is critical for taking appropriate decisions at various levels, from farmer’s field to the central government.

“When to plough and seed and how to manage water resources and design food procurement policies depends on the monsoon in India. Our efforts complement the forecasts made by the Indian authorities,” said Elena Surovyatkina, the team leader from the Potsdam institute.

Since last year, the German institute began forecasting the onset and withdrawal of monsoon using its own weather model.

Last month, IMD predicted a normal Southwest monsoon for this year. The country is expected to receive 96% of the average monsoon rain.