Bihar debacle to harm future poll tie-ups for the Congress

Bihar blues continue to haunt the Congress party after its show in the Assembly polls, which has exposed the party’s inability to pull up its socks during a crisis which ended up bringing down the Grand Alliance’s performance in the polls.

This debacle also gave the dominant regional parties in states like Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu to set the terms for an electoral alliance. The first shock it received was from Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party in UP, which ruled out a truck with Congress in 2022 Assembly polls.

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Congress contested the 2017 Assembly polls in alliance with SP, and won only seven seats out of 105 seats it contested, after campaigns by Rahul Gandhi and following election strategy of Prashant Kishore. Though the BJP won this election, the SP won 47 of 298 seats it contested.

Akhilesh Yadav’s father and SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav had then disapproved of his son’s strategy.

This time, Congress has made Priyanka Gandhi the in-charge for UP, indicating bigger ambitions. It’s only pragmatic on Akhilesh’s part to have a tie-up with smaller parties with specific caste bases in limited regions.

Left parties seem to have developed confidence in West Bengal after winning 16 out of 29 seats they contested in Bihar.

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The Left has ruled West Bengal for 34 years, till Mamata Banerjee won in 2011. They have cadres at the ground across the state unlike Congress, which has limited pockets of influence.

With Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM planning to field candidates in Muslim-dominated regions of West Bengal, Congress may be in for deep trouble.

In Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led alliance won 38 of 39 seats in 2019 Lok Sabha polls with DMK getting near 33 % of votes and Congress 13%. In the 2016 Assembly polls won by AIADMK, DMK contested 180 seats and won 88. Congress won only eight seats of 42 it contested. The party may find it difficult to even repeat its 2016 performance this time.

Bringing clarity on the alliance plans, CPIM said it would be a part of DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu.

Even in Assam Assembly polls in 2016, some parties had then put the blame on Congress for “division of secular votes” and not letting a strong Opposition alliance emerge against the BJP. Congress may have to do a tightrope walk in the 2021 Assembly polls. However, the CPIM said it will contest polls in Assam in alliance with all secular Opposition parties including Congress.