Political buzz in Jammu & Kashmir as parties prepare for Rajya Sabha elections, Assembly by-polls

Srinagar: The announcement of elections to four Rajya Sabha seats from Jammu and Kashmir and the likelihood of by-polls to Budgam and Nagrota Assembly constituencies has set off a flurry of political activity in the Union Territory (UT).

 
Although the biennial Rajya Sabha polls are scheduled for October 24, the real churn lies in how parties are scrambling to position themselves for what is being described as the “first big post-assembly test” of alliances and influence.

The National Conference (NC), Congress, and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have emerged as the three principal players in the chessboard politics now unfolding. With numbers in the 90-member J&K Assembly being the deciding factor, the NC-Congress bloc is weighing its options even as the BJP banks on its strength from Jammu.

Reports that Congress special observer Digvijay Singh will soon hold “poll-arrangement” talks with NC leadership have only heightened the buzz. “This is not just about filling vacancies; it is about testing the durability of alliances struck for the 2024 assembly polls,” a senior NC leader admitted.

The four Rajya Sabha seats have remained vacant since February 2021, when the tenure of J&K’s last members ended. The absence of an elected assembly following the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, and the subsequent delimitation exercise, meant there was no electoral college to elect replacements. It was only after the September 2024 assembly polls that the stage was set for J&K to regain its representation in the Upper House.

Equally watched are the impending by-polls to Budgam and Nagrota Assembly seats, likely to be notified later this month along with the Bihar Assembly election schedule. These contests are expected to be high-profile symbolic battles — indicators of which way the wind is blowing after last year’s assembly polls.

For the NC-Congress alliance, the Rajya Sabha elections will be the first serious trial of strength since they fought together to keep the BJP at bay in the Assembly polls. “The litmus test is whether the alliance can hold when numbers are at stake,” a Congress insider said.

The BJP, meanwhile, is quietly working its arithmetic, particularly from Jammu, where it continues to enjoy a solid base. Party leaders believe the Rajya Sabha elections will offer them an opportunity to remind their cadre that they remain a central force in the Union Territory’s politics.

As political parties hold late-night meetings and discreet consultations, the question of “when and how” the final deals are struck remains wide open. But one thing is certain: the October 24 Rajya Sabha polls have already reignited political buzz across Jammu and Kashmir.