2024 missed the climate moment but all's not lost

New Delhi: 2024 is set to end as the hottest year on record and the first with a global average temperature 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

It will also be remembered as the year developed nations had their last big chance to prevent the world from permanently crossing this critical threshold by funding climate action in the Global South -- and they blew it.

Relentless warming fuelled record-breaking heatwaves, deadly storms, and floods that devastated lives and homes by the thousands in 2024. Millions were displaced, and all eyes turned to the UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, hoping for a climate finance package capable of ramping up action in the Global South.

A study published in 2023 estimated that developed countries owe around USD 170 trillion for their excessive emissions, having consumed 70-90 per cent of the total carbon budget since the industrial era.

Instead, developed countries -- mandated under the UN climate regime to finance climate action in developing countries -- offered a paltry USD 300 billion by 2035, a mere fraction of the trillions needed annually from 2025.

India called the new climate finance package "too little, too distant", and "an optical illusion".

Developing countries faced a difficult choice: return to negotiations next year or accept the weak deal on the table. Fearing an even worse outcome in 2025 with the return of "climate denier" Donald Trump and a US exit from the Paris Agreement, the Global South reluctantly accepted the offer.

"Developing countries felt cornered into accepting a weak deal," a former Indian negotiator told PTI.

While political will remains fragmented, science continues to remind the world that it's an emergency.

In 2015, countries came together to limit global warming to "well below 2 degrees Celsius", aiming for 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Fast forward, the world has already heated up by 1.3 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial era, largely due to burning fossil fuels.

To limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the UN's climate science body, IPCC, says emissions must peak by 2025 and drop 43 per cent by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035.

Yet, current policies point to a hotter future -- around 3 degrees Celsius warming by 2100. Even if every country fulfils its climate promises or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), emissions would only shrink by a weak 5.9 per cent by 2030, far below what's needed.

Developed nations, the biggest historical polluters, are pushing developing countries to do more to meet the Paris Agreement goals.

Yet, these same nations often fall short of what is required to keep warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

On the other hand, developing countries argue their emissions are far smaller, and they are already grappling with poverty and growing climate disasters.

They insist they need financial and technological help to transition to clean energy without compromising their development.

And the COP29 outcomes did little to inspire developing nations to raise their climate ambitions for the 2030-35 period.

Fossil fuels are the main culprit, accounting for over 75 per cent of global GHG emissions, but ditching them for renewable energy is easier said than done, especially for poor countries in the Global South. They depend on them for jobs and cheap energy, and lack funding, technology, infrastructure and expertise.

Even renewable energy isn't quite there yet. The most tried-and-true option -- silicon-based solar panels -- tops out at 26 per cent efficiency and lasts just 20-25 years.

Meanwhile, other options like sucking carbon dioxide straight out of the air remain more sci-fi than reality.

While the world will take some time to fully switch to renewables and find new solutions, one thing is clear: developed countries need to consume less. The math is simple -- cutting their excess gives Global South countries the breathing room to grow sustainably.

Take the US, for example. CNBC says the average American splurges USD 5,400 annually on impulse buys, more than double India's per capita income of USD 2,500.

With per capita emissions less than half of global average, India launched Mission LiFE to encourage mindful consumption. Maybe it's time the big spenders took notes.