Crowd catastrophes: Lessons to learn

The two recent stampedes, which claimed dozens of lives and left scores injured, were not unforeseeable disasters but rather preventable tragedies which happened due to a lack of ground appreciation, poor inter-agency coordination, and the failure to implement proactive crowd management measures.

The catastrophic stampedes at Maha Kumbh in Prayagraj on January 29 and at the railway station in New Delhi on February 15 have once again underscored the glaring inadequacies in crowd control mechanisms in India.

Both incidents, which claimed dozens of lives and left scores injured, were not unforeseeable disasters but rather preventable tragedies which happened due to a lack of ground appreciation, poor inter-agency coordination, and the failure to implement proactive crowd management measures.

Tragedy at Maha Kumbh

The Maha Kumbh Mela is the world’s largest religious gathering, and this year’s event was expected to be even more huge due to a rare planetary alignment that occurs once every 144 years. The officials and the media speculated well before the festival that an estimated 450 million devotees would attend it. Such publicity blitzkrieg made it a must-attend event for many. However, given this staggering projection, it was imperative for law enforcement agencies and administrative machinery to prepare for handling such a mass surge of humanity, and they had ample time to do so.

But the ground-level response on the most auspicious bathing day was alarmingly inadequate. The sheer density of the crowd near the Sangam – the confluence of the Ganges and Yamuna rivers – exceeded manageable limits. There were clear lapses in assessing real-time crowd movements, managing entry and exit points, and ensuring controlled dispersal of devotees. The local police and paramilitary forces deployed for security seemed overwhelmed, and crucial failings in communication between ground personnel and control rooms contributed to the mayhem.

Eyewitness accounts suggest that crowd pressure built up for hours before the disaster. No proactive intervention was made, though. Instead of anticipating the surge and taking pre-emptive action – such as diverting foot traffic, pausing entry into certain areas, or increasing the number of personnel at checkpoints – the authorities reacted only after the situation spiralled out of control. The result was tragic: in the mad rush, people were trampled, suffocated, and crushed as they desperately tried to escape the bottlenecked areas.

Stampede at station

Just a few days later, another deadly stampede struck, this time at the New Delhi Railway Station. Thousands of Maha Kumbh pilgrims flooded the already overcrowded platforms. The New Delhi station, one of India’s busiest transit hubs, was woefully unprepared to accommodate such a massive influx. The announcement of running special trains to reach Prayagraj only proved counterproductive as the railway station was not adequately prepared to handle the additional surge of crowds in the absence of necessary anticipatory crowd control measures.

Platform bridges, which were meant to ease movement, turned into death traps as an anxious and confused crowd rushed to board their trains. The situation was exacerbated by a last-minute announcement that the special train was departing from a different platform than initially scheduled. This led to an uncontrolled rush, during which people slipped, fell, and were trampled in a horrifying chain reaction.

This disaster too was predictable. The spike in railway traffic was expected, given that the Kumbh Mela was drawing record crowds, and additional trains were added to the already overcrowded New Delhi Railway Station. Yet, railway authorities and law enforcement agencies failed to implement adequate measures to control passenger movement. Instead of deploying additional personnel, establishing clear queuing systems, or using staggered boarding procedures, officials merely hoped the crowd would manage itself.

A common problem

Both tragedies reflect a common problem: a glaring failure in ground appreciation by law enforcement agencies and other stakeholders. Crowd control is not just about numerical deployment; it requires real-time assessment, dynamic decision-making, and coordination between multiple agencies.

Despite having prior intelligence about the expected crowd surge, officials seemed to rely on outdated assumptions rather than adapting to the evolving situation on the ground. Police and administrative officers stationed at both sites did not exercise their discretionary powers to halt or redirect crowds at critical moments. Had there been timely interventions, such as temporarily blocking entry points, using barricades to create controlled movement lanes, or dispersing the gathering in phases, many lives could have been saved.

Furthermore, the absence of seamless coordination between law enforcement, railway authorities, and festival organisers was glaring. In both cases, there were evident gaps in communication: frontline personnel were either uninformed or lacked the authority to take immediate corrective action.

Lessons to learn

The stampedes at the Kumbh Mela and New Delhi Railway Station should serve as wake-up calls. Mere deployment of security forces is not sufficient; there must be a fundamental shift in how crowd control is conceptualised and executed.

Real-Time ground assessment: Law enforcement agencies must develop the capability for continuous ground appreciation. Officers at every level should be empowered to make real-time decisions based on on-the-spot assessments rather than waiting for directives from a distant control room.

Predictive crowd analytics: In an age of technological advancements, artificial intelligence and big data analytics can be leveraged to anticipate crowd movement patterns. Predictive modelling should be used to pre-emptively identify high-risk zones, allowing authorities to take precautionary measures before chaos erupts.

Better infrastructure and regulation: Railway stations, especially major transit hubs like New Delhi, need significant upgrades to handle surges in passenger traffic. Wider platforms, additional footbridges, rough and non-slippery staircases on footbridges and other parts of the station, clearer signages, and regulated crowd movement strategies must be implemented.

Inter-agency coordination: A single control authority should oversee high-risk events, integrating police, railway officials, event organisers, and medical responders into a unified command structure. This will ensure swift decision-making and avoid bureaucratic delays.

Complacency in crowd management: The possibility of a stampede happening in a mass surge of crowds is very real, and an attitude of complacency on the part of authorities is the single most common factor responsible for the failure of crowd control. This attitude creeps in slackness and lack of adequate preparedness on the part of authorities, and it often proves disastrous.

Importance of planning and rehearsals: Anticipation of every possible eventuality and incident and adequate planning and preparedness to meet each one of them hold the key to successful crowd management.

Real-time monitoring: A well-equipped control room with adequately staffed manpower holds a place of importance in such situations. Holding an eagle’s eye from a distance helps you identify pressure points of crowd surges and take timely preventive measures through diversions, blocking, and rushing additional manpower. Officers or men deployed on the spot are no substitute for such a support system which is detached and at a distance from the ground.

Public awareness and behaviour regulation: Educating the public on orderly movement in crowded places is essential. Information campaigns, public service announcements, and even simulation drills can instil a culture of discipline and caution in mass gatherings.

The Kumbh Mela and New Delhi Railway Station stampedes were not acts of fate but man-made disasters resulting from institutional complacency, poor planning, and a failure to appreciate ground realities. With India hosting some of the world’s largest religious and cultural gatherings, crowd control must be treated as a critical aspect of public safety, rather than an afterthought. Authorities must move beyond routine deployments and implement evidence-based strategies that prioritise proactive risk mitigation. Unless decisive reforms are undertaken, such tragedies will keep repeating, turning moments of spiritual and communal significance into scenes of unimaginable horror.

(The writers are retired IPS officers and members of the Indian Police Foundation. The article reflects their personal views.)