India’s tightrope walk: Amid US tariffs, Russia’s all-weather friendship and China’s uncertainty

For PM Narendra Modi and India, it is a reality check that the country must broaden its options and avoid dependence on any single power, however close the rhetoric of friendship may sound.

When US President Donald Trump pushed tariffs on Indian exports, it came as a lesson to New Delhi that even a 'strategic partner' can turn adversarial when domestic politics demands it. The tariffs are not just about trade, they also serve a warning that India should never assume anything when it comes to American interests. For Prime Minister Narendra Modi and India, it is a reality check that the country must broaden its options and avoid dependence on any single power, however close the rhetoric of friendship may sound.

Xi Jinping’s double-edged embrace

If Washington has suddenly become unfriendly, Beijing has been unpredictable for decades now. The 2020 Galwan Valley clash exposed how fragile the bilateral relations are between the two most populous countries of the world. For India, irrespective of the party in power at the Centre, China still remains an immediate security threat and a long-term rival.

Interestingly, the trade ties between the two arch-rivals in the region have continued to grow. Several Indian industries, from large-sized electronics industry to MSMEs and SMEs, depend heavily on Chinese inputs.

This uneasy yet necessary interdependence forces PM Modi into a situation which demands building military deterrence along the border while sitting across the table with Xi Jingping at BRICS and the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation. The message is clear—India cannot afford to love China, but it cannot afford to ignore it either.

Putin’s lifeline amid western sanctions

If China is the rival-turned-trade partner, Russia is the old friend under siege. For decades, India’s defence arsenal bore a Russian imprint. Under Vladimir Putin, Moscow is increasingly isolated by Western sanctions over the Ukraine war, but India has chosen pragmatism over pressure. Modi has resisted American and European calls to cut ties, instead purchasing discounted Russian crude oil that has kept inflation in check at home.

While diversification of defence imports is underway, Russian hardware and technology remain integral to India’s arsenal. New Delhi’s steady hand with Moscow shows it will not sacrifice long-standing ties with an all-weather friend, for the optics of Western approval.

Modi’s doctrine of strategic autonomy

New Delhi's long-cherished doctrine of strategic autonomy, now practiced with sharper intent, is the way forward. India has always nurtured ties with Washington for defence technology and investment, with Russia for energy and arms, and has strategically maintained engagement with China on multilateral, and occasionally bilateral, forums despite deep mistrust.

Modi’s summits with Putin, careful public messaging with Xi, and enthusiastic embrace of US-India initiatives reflect a sovereign policy that prioritizes Indian interests above ideological alignments.

Trump redux? The risk of American whiplash

The uncertainty surrounding American politics adds urgency to this balancing act. Should Trump or a Trump-like figure, return to the White House, tariffs and transactional policies could once again hit Indian exports. Even as Joe Biden has elevated the US-India partnership through initiatives like iCET (Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies), the shadow of protectionism looms large. Modi cannot ignore that India’s most important external partner may also be its most unfriendly when it comes to its own interests.

Xi’s assertiveness, Putin’s war

The challenges are not limited to Washington. Xi Jinping is unlikely to soften his stance, given Beijing’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region. China could very well again test India’s military and diplomatic resolve with another border tension. Russia-Ukraine war shows no sign of ending and due to which India’s continued purchase of Russian oil and weapons will remain under Western scrutiny. West is trying to create a narrative that Russian war machinery is being oiled by money coming from India. The longer the war drags on, the harder the balancing act becomes.

'Atmanirbhar Bharat' as India’s insurance policy

Against this backdrop, India’s real insurance lies within. Investing in domestic manufacturing capacity, gradually reducing dependence on Chinese products and technology, diversifying energy sources, and accelerating indigenous defence production will certainly give New Delhi the leverage it needs. If India manages this in the next decade or so, it can very well navigate through situations like US' tariffs, China’s coercion, or Russia’s sanctions-hit economy on its own terms rather than dealing with these from a position of vulnerability.

India’s global role: From dependence to power

India’s foreign policy challenge is not about choosing Washington over Moscow or Beijing. It is about ensuring no single capital dictates terms to New Delhi. Trump’s tariffs, Xi’s aggressions, and Putin’s war have each reinforced one truth for Modi: only a resilient, self-reliant India can convert external pressures into opportunities.

The tightrope is real, the stakes are high, but India’s ability to transform proximity into power will determine whether it merely survives in a fractured world—or emerges as a pole in its own right.