Study lays pathways for Karnataka to avoid 128% increase in greenhouse gas emissions

Bengaluru: Karnataka's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will increase from the current 175 million tonnes to 400 million tonnes by 2050, but there are tangible pathways to achieve a low-carbon future to reduce the emissions to 50 million tonnes, says a new report by Centre for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP).

The report titled 'Namma SAFARI: Low-Carbon Development Pathways for Karnataka' seeks to start a dialogue on the much-needed 'bottom-up approach' even as India reckons the challenges to achieving net-zero emission by 2070.

Kaveri Ashok and 11 others from CSTEP came together to prepare the Karnataka's first systems dynamics model that considers how each of the sectors like energy, transport, industry, land use etc interact with each other even as they expand and grow to match the demand of an increasing population, urbanisation and gross domestic product (GDP).

Laying down the scenario for different sectors, the study also indicated a loose time frame for the shift to happen. For instance, the steel industry is projected to produce 21 million tonne per annum of steel by 2030. Considering that they already account for 50% of industrial energy emissiouns in Karnataka, steel units need to look for adopting less polluting methods to make production of steel sustainable.

"Greening the iron and steel industry is integral to the state’s net-zero pathway," the study said, noting that industry will slowly shift to electric arc furnaces while adopting hydrogen and biochar to achieve overall efficiency. However, the shift is dependent on the assumption that green hydrogen becomes cost competitive post 2040.

In the building sector, the share of burnt clay brick will continue to be 45%-50% till 2050. As demand for housing increases, the emissions from the sector will increase if a shift towards better construction materials is not achieved by 2050. This has to be complemented by adoption of passive cooling (25%–30% reduction in energy demand), electric cooking and other measures.

As other industries and sectors like transport transition to low-carbon pathways, the demand for electricity will more than triple with 408 TWh per annum by 2050.

An aggressive reduction in coal-generated electricity has to be compensated by major capacity increase from solar, wind, pumped hydro storage and other green solutions to walk the low-carbon path. "Our simulation indicates that by 2050, 133 GW of solar, 107 GW of wind, 8 GWh of PHS+RE, and 400 GWh of Battery + RE will be required to meet the electricity demand," the study said.

Kaveri Ashok, who heads the Sustainability group within the Climate, Environment and Sustainability Sector at CSTEP, said the dashboard that was used to develop the simulations will be made accessible for the policymakers soon.

"The system's dynamic modelling is unique in that we have brought all the sectors and their complex interrelationships together. There are positive initiatives taken up by different sectors in isolation. Some of the players are adopting green solutions because they are cost effective. Our study only gives them the tools to see the greater benefits of the low-carbon pathways," she said.

To a question on the financing of the transition, Indu K Murthy, sector head, Climate, Environment and Sustainability, said, "A push is required from both the policy and market. Some of the measures we have suggested are low-hanging fruits."