Mumbai, suburbs brace for heavy rainfall between September 27-29

Mumbai: The financial capital of Mumbai and its suburbs are bracing up for a wet weekend with heavy rainfall expected between September 27-29 coinciding with the Navratri-Durga Puja festivities.

The Mumbai-based Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) of the IMD has sounded Orange Alert for the weekend for Mumbai and its suburban areas of the larger Mumbai metropolitan region (MMR) even as independent and private weather forecasters too sounded a note of caution.

“Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning, heavy rain with gusty winds 30-40 kmph are very likely to occur at isolated places in the districts North Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada,” the RMC said.

“Heavy monsoon rains are coming up for Mumbai shortly. The city has not had typical Mumbai monsoon rains for the last one week. An intense and widespread wet spell is expected over the city and suburbs starting on the weekend and extending till mid-week next. This could also be the last significant monsoon round before it withdraws, nearly coinciding with its normal date,” the Skymet Weather Services said.

In its forecast, it said: “Mumbai has crossed its monthly normal rainfall for September. It has logged 429.3 mm of rainfall between 1st and 24th September, against its monthly normal of 341.4 mm. Mostly light rains are expected for the next three days, between 24th and 26th September. The rains will be moderate on 27th September and pick up significantly thereafter. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely between 28th and 30th September. It may cause disruption to rail, road, and air traffic. Moderate rains with a few heavy spells will spill over and last till 2–3 October. The withdrawal of the monsoon may coincide narrowly with its normal date of 8 October.”

The IIT-Bombay’s Centre for Climate Services said: “As per our model forecasts, Mumbai is likely to witness light rainfall tomorrow which might increase in the next few days.”

According to Mumbai-based Rushikesh Agre, who posts weather-related information on social media, many models indicate extremely heavy rains over Mumbai during 27-29 September timeline as the low pressure trajectory will pass closer to Mumbai due to southward shift. Adjoining areas will get heavy/very heavy but Mumbai is likely to get most impacted this weekend.”

According to agriculture and crop scientist Athreya Shetty, who makes independent forecasts, 28-29 September will be very similar to the deluge of 18-19 August, initially starting from south MMR moving northwards with a vortex. 200mm+ rainfall is expected widely, with isolated regions in south and west MMR likely to see around 300 mm in 24 hrs.

According to KS Hosalikar, former Scientist-G and Former Head; Climate Research & Services, IMD Pune: “24 September, IMD model guidance for 27 to 30 September for possibility of heavy to very heavy rains over Maharashtra and adjoining areas, in view of Low Pressure Area development on 25 September over Bay of Bengal it's likely inward movement & its further intensification. IMD has already been alerted and updated daily.”