Many factors could prompt IUML join hands with CPM in Kerala

Even as the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) leaders in Kerala have rejected a feeler by a CPM leader to join the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala, there are many factors that could lead to the IUML joining hands with the CPM in the due course.

IUML has been part of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala over the last several decades and is the second-largest party on the front in terms of the number of MLAs. But with the UDF losing the Assembly elections for the second consecutive term and the infight in the Congress was considered to be the key reason, there has been resentment among IUML leaders towards the Congress.

For the LDF, even as it made an impressive performance in the 2021 elections by improving its margin to 99 seats from 91 in 2016 in the 140 member assembly, in the IUML's stronghold Malappuram district of North Kerala out of the 16 seats, LDF could win only four, though IUML vote shares declined. Hence having the IUML with it may only bring more advantages than disadvantages to the left-front.

Writer and political analyst from North Kerala M N Karassery told DH that at a time when political ideologies were secondary to hunger for power the chances of the IUML joining the LDF could not be ruled out. It would be difficult for a party like IUML to survive without power and money for ten years. Moreover, since the IUML was part of the CPM government of 1967, there would not be much ideological embarrassment in joining hands with the CPM.

Karasserry anticipates that the IUML could be waiting for the right opportunity for coming closer to the CPM. The emerging discussions on a uniform civil code could be an opportunity as Congress may not be in a position to take a tough stand against it as the CPM would do, he said.

The present discussions over IUML's entry to LDF were triggered by a statement of CPM senior leader and LDF convenor E P Jayarajan. Jayarajan retracted it after some CPM leaders expressed differences. But political analysts are of the opinion that it was a political strategy to trigger discussions on those lines.

For quite some time the CPM, especially Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, has been trying to weaken the IUML by accusing it of being a communal party. The left front even tried to promote the Indian National League, which was formed by a faction that left the IUML, and even the lone INL MLA was made a minister in the present cabinet. But the INL is now caught up in infights, whereas the IUML continues to enjoy reasonable support in the Muslim strongholds of North Kerala and is having secular credentials too.