Kerala, Maharashtra Covid cases not going down; Central team in 6 states with fresh rise in daily cases

Teams have been rushed to Kerala, Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and Manipur

The number of new Covid-19 cases in Kerala and Maharashtra, the two worst-affected states, is not dipping further after reaching a plateau about two weeks ago while five other states have shown an early sign of a fresh rise in the daily Covid count, prompting the Centre to act.

For over a fortnight’s time, Maharashtra is reporting 8,000 to 10,000 daily cases, which has emerged as a worrying factor for the state administration. “It is a matter of concern that the cases are not dropping below 8,000,” said Rajesh Tope, Maharashtra’s public health and family welfare minister.

Down south in Kerala, which currently reports India’s maximum fresh Covid-19 cases every day, the trend is similar since June 16.

On June 30 and July 1, Kerala reported more than 13,000 new cases in the past 24 hours – the highest in two weeks – after which the number dropped marginally on July 2 (12,868).

The state test positivity rate has also hovered around 10% for the last two weeks. During the peak of the second surge, Kerala’s test positivity went up to 30% by mid-May following which it declined steadily to reach between 10-11% by mid-June, because of which the state government lifted several curbs easing people’s life. But since then the positivity rate has been stagnant.

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In a new worrying development, the Union Health Ministry on Friday sent teams to Kerala, Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Manipur for an inspection “in view of the increased number of Covid-19 cases being reported by these states.”

In absolute terms, the numbers are not high either in the northeastern states or in Chhattisgarh but there is a clear increasing trend seen in the last four days. In Odisha, the daily cases are in the range of above 3,000 while it shoots up to 11,000-13,000 in Kerala.

Kerala Health department nodal officer Amar Fettle said people could be seen flouting social distance norms at shops and other public places, which could be the reason behind such a positivity rate and new cases. The virus mutation could also be a factor.

While health department officials blame it on people’s behaviour in the Malabar state, other experts said prolonging the restrictions would obviously lead to people defying the restrictions.

“The lockdown restrictions in Kerala are illogical. Restricting the timings of shops and imposing total shut down on Saturday and Sunday led to a rush at the shops. Delaying the peak also led to mental stress among the people. Maximising vaccination is the way out,” said S S Lal, a former technical officer at the World Health Organization.

In Maharashtra half a dozen districts – Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg in the Konkan region and Pune, Sangli, Satara and Kolhapur – are the new problem zones. Many of them are among the districts reporting more than 100 cases daily.

An infectious diseases expert, wishing anonymity said, “We are comparing the spread with the West. These six districts together are as good as a European country. You also have to see that when Mumbai metropolitan region and Pune were at its peak, these districts were stable. The peak here is late and subsequently, in a few weeks it will be down.”

(With Inputs from Mrityunjay Bose and Arjun Raghunath)