India’s daily Covid-19 death toll falls below 500 after three months

Since Sept 9-19, the number of cases reported per day decreased by 10,000 every 10 days

After more than three months, India’s official daily Covid-19 death count fell below 500 on Monday as the country continues to observe a downward slide in the number of Covid-19 cases and deaths.

In the last 24 hours, the pandemic killed 480 Indians taking the cumulative death toll in excess of 1.19 lakh. The number of fresh cases also dropped to 45,148 in the past day, taking the overall tally to 79.09 lakh.

The last time India recorded less than 500 deaths was on July 12. The number of cases was on a continuous rise till September 16 when nearly 98,000 new cases were registered in a single day. Since then the curve has been trending downwards.

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The fatality rate too dropped to 1.5% - the lowest since March 22, the Union Health Ministry said in a statement. There are 14 states including Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Bihar, Odisha, Assam and Kerala where the fatality rate is lesser than 1%.

The case fatality rate is lowest since March 22. It reached two peaks on May 4 (3.23%) and June 22 (3.22%). Since then it has been declining continuously.

Nearly 80% of Covid-19 deaths on Sunday were recorded in ten states with Maharashtra topping the chart (112 deaths) followed by West Bengal (60) and Delhi (33). On Monday, Maharashtra after many months registered less than 100 toll and less than 5,000 daily cases, which would be reflected in the official records on Tuesday.

An analysis of the caseload in September shows that daily cases were between 90,000 and 98,000 between September 9-19 and reportage of daily cases reduced by around 10,000 every 10 days since that period.

Between September 20-30, the recorded daily cases were between 80,000 and 90,000 (except 69,671 on Sept 28). Between October 1-10, the recorded daily cases were between 70,000 and 80,000 (with exception of 60,128 cases on Oct 5). From Oct 11-20, the number varied between 54,000 to 68,000 (with an exception of 46,498 cases on Oct 19).

"We need to wait for a couple of weeks to confirm if the peak has indeed arrived. We have now been 5-week past-peak and as such declare that peak was on September 16. While passing of the peak is indeed an important goal, subsequent surges can come, as seen in several countries of Europe," Ishwar Gilada, Secretary General, Peoples Health Organisation, Mumbai.