BJP surge, anti-incumbency sentiment may hurt Left govt in Kerala local body polls

On the eve of the elections, the air is thick with allegations and counter-allegations by leaders of political parties

Will the BJP-led NDA make a further surge in electoral politics in Kerala and did the recent allegations against ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) trigger anti-incumbency factor against the state government?

These are the crucial questions doing the rounds as Kerala is heading for three-phase polls across 1,199 local bodies beginning December 8. The next two phases are scheduled for December 10 and 14 and the counting is on December 16.

Kerala witnessed a major NDA surge in the 2015 local body elections with the saffron party coming to power in one of the 87 municipalities in the state (Palakkad), coming second in the prestigious Thiruvananthapuram City Corporation and coming to power in 14 gram panchayats. The vote share of BJP also increased to 13.28 per cent, while that of LDF was 37.36 per cent and Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) 37.23 per cent.

As the public campaign for the first-phase polls ended on Sunday, BJP leaders were expressing a high level of confidence in the state capital. Party senior leader and former Mizoram Governor Kummanam Rajasekharan said that Thiruvananthapuram city was facing backwardness in all sectors and the people badly want a change from the LDF and the UDF that had been ruling the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation over these years. Hence BJP is the option, he said.

For the CPI(M), the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation is prestigious as they have been ruling it for the past 25 years.

In the 2015 local body elections, LDF topped the overall tally by securing a majority in four of the six corporations, 43 of the 87 municipalities, seven of the 14 district panchayats, 90 of the 152 block panchayats and 551 of the 941 gram panchayats. UDF was then in power in the state and the Left-Front's upper hand in the local body elections was considered as an anti-incumbency factor against the then Oommen Chandy government that faced a series of allegations including receiving bribes from bar owners.

A similar scenario is now prevailing in the state as the ruling Left-Front is facing allegations pertaining to nexus with gold smuggling accused and bribery allegations against the who's who in the government. Hence the Left-Front has serious concerns that anti-incumbency factor may work against them, especially when the Assembly polls are hardly five months away.

While CPI(M) state-secretary in-charge A Vijayaraghavan alleged the existence of a Congress-BJP nexus, BJP leader Kummanam Rajasekharan alleged of Congress-CPI(M) nexus. Congress leader Ramesh Chennithala said that the nexus is between CPI(M) and BJP.