Advantage Congress in Kerala. Can it avoid a self-goal?

While the UDF’s vote share in local body polls was over 40%, the LDF secured around 35%, and the NDA about 15%.

Enthused by its impressive performance in the local body elections, the Congress-led United Democratic Front in Kerala is gearing up for the Assembly polls due in the next few months.

The pro-UDF trend in the local body polls, widely considered as the semi-finals to the Assembly elections, has raised hopes in UDF camps of returning to power in the southern state after a decade.

The CPM-led Left Democratic Front, under the leadership of Pinarayi Vijayan, is eyeing a third consecutive term, while the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is eager to reopen its account in the Kerala Assembly in a significant way.

The key takeaway from the local body election results is the prevailing strong anti-incumbency against the Pinarayi Vijayan government, with the people of Kerala still viewing the UDF—not the NDA—as the principal alternative.

While the UDF’s vote share in local body polls was over 40 per cent, the LDF secured around 35 per cent, and the NDA about 15 per cent.

Even as Opposition Leader V D Satheesan’s graph continues to rise further following the back-to-back electoral victories for the UDF, it is not surprising to see several top leaders in the top-heavy party becoming visibly more active. This has given rumour mills ample scope to speculate about a power tussle within the Congress over the chief minister’s post.

However, a return to power in Kerala is crucial not just for the party’s state unit but also for the All India Congress Committee (AICC), as the Congress is currently in power in only three states. The AICC, therefore, is expected to act firmly against any attempts to play spoilsport.

“The conditions seem so favourable for the Congress now that even if it wanted to lose, it would be a difficult task,” says political analyst and academician J Prabhash.

Can the LDF arrest the swing?

Meanwhile, journalist and political analyst Jacob George is not yet writing off the LDF’s chances of making a comeback.  “The local body election results convey that the core political votes of both UDF and LDF remain largely intact. It was the neutral votes that swung in the UDF’s favour. Hence, there is still time for the LDF to reverse the swing,” says George.

He also does not see the chance of an infight in the Congress playing the spoilsport. “The Congress camps are now very confident of a comeback in Kerala, which is very crucial for the party. Hence, they will keep their internal issues at bay and unitedly contest the polls,” says George.

Prabhash, however, points out that with the Sabarimala gold heist issue continuing to snowball into a major scam involving CPM leaders and with the LDF government having little scope to roll out major sops owing to the acute financial crunch, it will be a near-impossible task for the LDF government to change the swing in its favour within a short span.

Even though the Pinarayi government announced a slew of sops—such as a hike in welfare pensions to over 60 lakh beneficiaries—just ahead of the local body polls, it failed to woo voters. The government is now hastily rolling out recently announced direct cash transfer schemes for women and unemployed youth.

Meanwhile, despite a hype around emerging as the largest party in the Thiruvananthapuram corporation, the BJP has little reason to cheer. 

Despite party top leader and Union Home Minister Amit Shah setting a target of 25 per cent vote share in the local body polls, the BJP managed only around 15 per cent, which is also a drop from 19.40 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It lost the Pandalam municipality, while its performance in Palakkad municipality declined by three seats, though it managed to secure a majority in Thrippunithura municipality.

Voting patterns in the local body elections show that the BJP gained a clear edge in three seats in Thiruvananthapuram—Vattiyoorkavu, Nemom and Kazhakoottam. The party is therefore planning to make major announcements for the Thiruvananthapuram City Corporation to highlight its development agenda.

However, the results indicate that the BJP did not get the benefit of the Sabarimala gold heist issue, and it was the Congress that reaped the benefits. The BJP could continue to woo CPM’s Hindu votebanks, mostly the Hindu-Ezhava community, which is the largest Hindu community in the state.

On the other hand, the UDF has benefited from strong consolidation of Muslim votes, while the BJP’s Christian outreach—aimed at denting the Congress’s traditional Christian vote base—failed to make any impact. 

For all these reasons, the political climate in Kerala appears overwhelmingly favourable for the Congress to stage a resounding comeback.

Satheesan has already set an ambitious target of winning up to 100 seats in the 140-member state Assembly. To ensure that every vote counts, more fringe parties are being accommodated within the UDF. The hope now is that Congress leaders will rally firmly behind Satheesan—at least until the elections are over.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.)