BJP losing the narrative in UP

UP voters are angry because of price rise, falling incomes, stray cattle menace - economic issues that are neutral across caste, community and religion

In election-going Uttar Pradesh, candidates and campaigners of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are being chased away by the people and their campaign vehicles attacked. These unprecedented incidents are not limited to western Uttar Pradesh, the area most impacted by the farmers' agitation. In eastern UP, Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya was heckled in his home borough of Sirathu in the Kaushambi district. Women were seen slamming doors on him, and he faced hostile sloganeering.

The video of a BJP campaigner, allegedly a sitting legislator in UP, threatening the people stoning his car with a pistol, has gone viral. Union Minister Smriti Irani was heckled in her parliamentary constituency of Amethi, UP Sugarcane Minister, Suresh Rana, was abused by farmers in his home constituency Shamli, legislator Suresh Pasi from Amethi faced an irate mob, the BJP's campaign carcade was attacked, and some windscreens broken in Baghpat, sitting BJP MLA Pooran Prakash was chased away by the locals in Mathura's Baldev constituency and the cars of BJP canvassers in Meerut stoned.

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Similar incidents have been witnessed in Vrindavan, Siwalkhas (Meerut district), Khatauli, Chhaprauli, Sambhal and Bulandshahr. In the face of local anger, Devendra Singh Lodi, the sitting legislator from Syana constituency in Bulandshahr, issued a video appeal to his constituents, saying, "… for all the mistakes I have committed up to now, I seek your forgiveness by bowing my head at your venerable feet. I promise not to commit such mistakes in the future."

Political observers believe that instances of taking down BJP candidates in western UP could have a copycat effect in other parts of the state, turning into a free for all that would damage the electoral prospects of the party.

There are signs of panic in the party. Union Home Minister Amit Shah had to station himself in the Kairana constituency directing door-to-door campaigning - a constituency where he has made considerable effort to communalise the out-migration of some Hindu families. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not addressed a single rally, real or virtual, in the three weeks since he abandoned the Ferozepur rally. One reason for abandoning it, it is said, was the dismal attendance at Ferozepur. The banning of roadshows and rallies by the Election Commission of India till January 31, citing the Covid pandemic, may have given the BJP's chief campaigner some much-needed respite.

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Meanwhile, youth protests which started in Patna against alleged irregularities in the Railway Recruitment Board – Non-Technical Popular Categories (RRB-NTPC) examination have spilled over to UP. In Prayagraj, after protesting students tried to stop a train, the UP police resorted to baton-charging and raided hostels and lodges where they suspected some protesters were hiding. After political parties backed the students "protesting unemployment", the Union Railway Ministry has stayed new exams of NTPC categories and Level 1 of the RRB. A committee will hold discussions with the previous examinees and submit a report to the ministry. Whether this will be sufficient to contain the despondency of the student protesters remains to be seen.

What is clear, however, is that the BJP seems to have lost the narrative in UP. While its campaigners, including Union Home Minister Shah and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, are campaigning to polarise the voters along religious lines, they have not met with much success. Going by the viral videos posted on social media, the protests against the BJP candidates in western UP constituencies are about the lack of "vikas" (development) and jobs. Clearly, the millions of tax-payers money that the Adityanath government has spent on propaganda about its developmental efforts have benefited only the media recipients of his largesse. There seem to be few takers for UP minister Sidharth Nath Singh's claim that the Adityanath government had created 2.64 crore jobs in 4.5 years. Sceptics scoff that this figure even exceeds the less than two crore jobs created in the entire country under Prime Minister Modi.

India's former Chief Economic Advisor Kaushik Basu, in a tweet, presented a more realistic picture: "In Uttar Pradesh between 2016 and 2021 working-age population rose 146.9 mill(ion) to 169.2 mill(ion) and the number of people with jobs fell from 56.4 mill(ion) to 55.8 mill(ion). Much of this loss had occurred before the pandemic - a result of policy focus being on grand projects rather than human welfare."

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Youngsters stare at a bleak future, apprehensive of going past the age of qualifying for government jobs. They were at one point the main supporters of Prime Minister Modi because of his promise of job creation. UP voters are also angry because of price rise, falling incomes exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, the menace of stray cattle exacerbated by the government's restrictions on the cattle trade and the non-payment of sugarcane dues from previous harvests. These economic issues are neutral across caste, community and religion.

While the main Opposition, Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal, are busy converting the election into a caste election, the BJP is trying to draw this discontent into a communal discourse. It has not been successful in doing so up to now because of the acuteness of economic woes. If there is negative voting in UP, it is the SP-RLD alliance that would be the main gainer despite its caste-based approach. However, the alliance, it is understood, is wary of communal occurrences that might yet polarise the UP election, pushing livelihood issues to the background. Even if such an incident were to take place in some other state, it might be played to the BJP's advantage in the UP campaign. Their fears may rest on no more than the adeptness of the BJP to play the communal card in every election.

(The writer is a journalist based in Delhi)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.

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