The crisis of unmet fertility goals

The State of World Population Report 2025, released by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), has highlighted a few significant issues related to the global population. It estimates that the world’s population has reached 8.2 billion, with growth rates slowing in most countries and regions.

The report finds major disparities in population dynamics across the world and says that the main challenge on the demographic front lies in unfulfilled fertility aspirations where individuals are unable to achieve their desired family size.

It notes that one in five people in the world does not expect to have the desired number of children because of the high costs involved in raising them, insecurity in employment, housing issues, concerns about the world, and not finding the right partner. Economic stress and gender inequality also play a big role.

The real issues with population are not limited to the rise or fall of numbers but also about the situations and the states of mind that contribute to these numbers, according to the report.

India’s fertility rate has declined to 1.9, which is well below the replacement level of 2.1. This is because of better access to education and healthcare, especially reproductive healthcare, and improvement in other social metrics and living standards.

But if the population starts declining before the country becomes rich, it will have a large elderly population, which needs to be supported by a smaller base of a working population.

India has a window of opportunity now, which will close soon as the global population is expected to peak by 2065 and then decline. The challenge is to provide health, education, and skills to the young population and create productive human capital. There are inequalities of a high order among states, castes, and income groups in terms of fertility rates. This needs to be addressed to avoid social and economic tensions.

Stating that there is no need for panic over the falling fertility rate, the report says it is important to address unmet reproductive goals, noting that millions of individuals are not able to realise them.

It says this, and not underpopulation or overpopulation, is the real demographic crisis. According to the report, about 36 per cent of Indians reported unintended pregnancy and 30 per cent said they were unable to fulfill the desire for a child. About 23 per cent have experienced both situations. Improving women’s agency is critical, as about 40 per cent of the women said their reproductive decisions were constrained by other factors. The country needs to look at the numbers through the lens of rights – of an individual to make free and responsible reproductive decisions.