End of the road for Pawar Sr?

The Ajit Pawar-led breakaway group of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) seems to have the edge over the group that remains loyal to the party patriarch and founder Sharad Pawar, claiming allegiance of 32 of the NCP’s 53 MLAs. The 82-year-old Sharad Pawar has not conceded defeat yet to his elder brother Anantrao Pawar’s son. Ajit needs at least four more MLAs to split away without attracting the anti-defection law.

Both NCP and Shiv Sena – the two parties that have split in Maharashtra – are dynastic parties. While Uddhav Thackeray has returned to the comfort of Matoshree after the revolt in his party, Sharad Pawar is fighting to save his. It could be his last battle, if not already a lost one.

Pawar Sr’s first agenda after the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi – the Shiv Sena-Congress-NCP coalition -- lost its government, was to consolidate his own power and position, wealth and property. When he sensed trouble from Ajit, he decided to hand over the party to his daughter Supriya Sule, rather than to his nephew.

If that had been the only reason for Ajit to revolt, it would have been a messy family drama playing out in public. Obviously, there is much more than that at stake, as far as Ajit is concerned. A much bigger political drama is unfolding in Maharashtra.

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Sharad Pawar’s “subversion of democracy” charge will not impress his nephew. Pawar Sr has only to look at his own track record to see why. In 1978, when many of his current party colleagues were yet to cut their teeth in politics, Pawar revolted against his own mentor, Vasantdada Patil, and became Chief Minister of Maharashtra. More recently, it is believed, it was his idea to encourage the Shiv Sena to join hands with the Congress and NCP to form government after the Sena had fought the election in alliance with the BJP.

Ajit has also not forgotten that it was Pawar Sr who scuttled his earlier bid to join hands with Devendra Fadnavis and obtain power, apparently by promising to make him party chief in due course – which he did not keep. Now, neither his close associates nor his relatives trust Sharad Pawar anymore.

With the split in the NCP and Ajit joining the Eknath Shinde cabinet, it is the BJP that has benefitted the most. If Ajit’s claim to the NCP name and symbol is upheld legally, the party will officially become part of the NDA, which the BJP is frantically trying to expand. A similar windfall for the Shinde group of the Shiv Sena will make the NDA a formidable force in Maharashtra. All this will leave just one opponent, the Congress, on the ground, and it could well benefit, too, by mopping up those local satraps, Maratha community leaders, caste chieftains who cannot go to the NDA, as well as the minority vote bank, which till now trusted Sharad Pawar as its insurance against the BJP.

Much will depend on the legal outcomes and political muscle-flexing in Maharashtra in the days to come. As of now, the Congress seems to be lying low as it has neither a strong voter base nor effective leadership. Much will also depend on Sharad Pawar’s next move as well as the new coalition’s capacity to stay together. Political power is, of course, a very strong adhesive to keep strange bedfellows tightly glued together.

Meanwhile, could the estranged Thackeray cousins – Uddhav and Raj – bury the hatchet and join forces again? That may seem unlikely, given that Raj Thackeray’s politics is closer to the BJP’s than to Uddhav’s, and his “courtesy call” on Chief Minister Shinde. But as they say, anything is possible in politics.

And where does all this leave the much-touted united Opposition platform to take on the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha election? The wily Pawar Sr has not said a word about its future since returning from Patna, where 17 parties met. With his party split, his daughter seen as incapable of leading it, his nephew and his trusted lieutenants deserting him, Sharad Pawar’s credibility and his power are at the lowest ebb. His ambition to play kingmaker, let alone aspire to be the king himself, is more or less dead. Can the Opposition parties even count on him to hold them together until elections?

In politics, as in any other game, the winner takes the cake, but in all this political whirlwind, the BJP-controlled government will do well not to forget the governance agenda.