How to withstand nature’s fury this monsoon

Amidst the pain of Covid-19, the agony of last year’s flood and landslides in coastal and hilly Karnataka might have evaporated from public memory. But the findings of the Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC) that as many as 23 taluks of western Karnataka are vulnerable to landslides must awaken us. We are up against a fresh set of challenges as the monsoon has arrived, while the government’s attention is only on pandemic management. The natural disaster management strategies of the government need to be remodelled quickly, based on recent experience. Otherwise, even right decisions may go wrong if delayed.

Many recommendations have been put forth by experts. Bringing all types of natural disasters under the purview of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), ensuring operational transparency, setting aside adequate resources, empowering district-level disaster management task forces, are noteworthy among those recommendations. Assimilating new-age technologies like mobile computing and defence technologies are also advocated. The NDMA could certainly become effective by incorporating these inputs. Three more key suggestions are made here based on the lessons learnt during floods and landslides in Karnataka in recent years.

The first one is about enhancing the reliability of disaster warnings at the micro-level. It is true that NDMA is empowered now with regional-level weather forecast and early warning systems. But the field experience shows that the scope for improving the forecast models still exists. We must recall that the loss of life and properties should have been reduced during last year’s flood in the remote pockets of the Western Ghats and coastal Karnataka, given the fact that it was forecast weeks earlier. Is it not a tragedy to see the people suffer, despite the availability of high-precision technologies like that of space, geo-science, information technology and environmental science?

That means, however accurate the weather forecast at the macro-level, it often falls short in serving the needs of field-level management. All advanced tools and technology, therefore, must be brought on a single administrative platform so that location-specific micro-level forecast modules can be developed. Such customised disaster predictions can then be delivered to Grama Panchayats for timely interventions, with appropriate risk assessment and mitigation strategies. The second component is about making the natural disaster forecast system more comprehensive. It can be achieved on two fronts. One is by having cumulative risk assessment for a given location by considering all possible forms of disasters that may strike there. Heavy rain, for instance, may be followed by floods, landslides and so on. And the other is about making predictions sensitive towards local ecology. Rain of similar intensity, for instance, may cause differential impacts in two adjacent hamlets in the hilly terrains of the Sahyadri. The prediction models that are sensitive to soil type, topography, vegetation, micro-climate, land use regime, etc., can alone help the ground players in the task of early evacuation. Getting the right orientation on the optimum use of technology is the need of the hour.

The final aspect is about ensuring active participation of people in the ground-level actions. One must recall that it is the tribal youth who carried the message of heavy rain forecast to each and every home in many remote pockets of the Western Ghats during the heavy downpour last year. Citizen groups like farmers’ organisations, Self-Help Groups (SHGs), Village Forest Committees (VFCs), Grama Panchayat-level Biodiversity Management Committees have proven their effectiveness many times during such calamities. The NDMA must synthesise a mechanism for involving local communities and civil society organisations.

Such active participation of local communities can be crucial on many counts. Villagers who often show resistance to leave their much-loved homes or properties during floods, for instance, can only be persuaded to relocate by near and dear ones. When people lose their identity documents like ration cards, as happened in the North Karnataka floods in 2019, it is the local people who helped the authorities to fix the problem. They may reach the emergency spots well before government authorities do. It is high time, therefore, to ensure people’s participation, which may bring in a much-needed cushioning effect for the government’s response. The Government of Karnataka’s high-level expert committee on landslides has also recommended such interventions in its final report, submitted to the government recently. Before yet another round of disasters strike this monsoon, it would be better if all these issues are addressed. Let not the pandemic become an excuse for not doing so, as the fact remains that we are living in a world of multiple natural threats. Natural disasters can certainly be managed better if policy and practices are strengthened by integrating strategies. Be it the people of the coast, the Sahyadri hills or the interior plains, all deserve better governance and response when nature strikes. Let’s hope the government lives up to it this monsoon.

(The writer is Director, Centre for Conservation Biology & Sustainable Development, Sirsi)