Navigating the Indus Waters Treaty

The six rivers of the Indus Basin, viz., the three Western Rivers— Indus, Chenab and Jhelum— as well as the three Eastern Rivers, namely Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, flow from India to Pakistan. After partition in 1947, there was apprehension that India could cause harm to Pakistan, taking advantage of being the upper riparian. Therefore, at the instance of the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) was drafted by specialists from India and Pakistan and signed by Nehru and Ayub Khan in 1960.

India has abided by the provisions of IWT till today. Not only has India designed its structures in accordance with the treaty, but it has also operated these structures without flouting any of the constraints imposed by the IWT. It is especially worth mentioning that despite Pakistan engaging in three wars in 1965, 1971, and 1999, India did not resort to either flooding their territories or cutting off their supplies during any of these wars, highlighting India’s commitment to the provisions of the treaty as a responsible signatory.

As per the IWT, India has the full right to use the waters of the Eastern Rivers in whatever way it deems appropriate – for irrigation, hydropower development, industrial water supply, etc. The flow in the Eastern Rivers is about 20% of the total yield in the basin. These waters have been practically fully utilised by India. The waters of the Western Rivers are allocated to Pakistan except for the right given to India for hydropower generation by run-of-river schemes and a limited amount of storage for irrigation, etc. To dispel Pakistan’s fears that these structures on the Western Rivers could be used to cut off supplies or cause artificial flooding, the IWT imposes restrictions on the design and operation of these structures aimed at achieving the following objective:

Pakistan shall receive for unrestricted use all those waters of the Western Rivers, which India is under obligation to let flow.

Following the Pahalgam attack, the Government of India has decided to keep IWT suspended. This has given rise to the feeling in many quarters that India would now be able to stop the waters from entering Pakistan and thereby do them incalculable harm. Such an action is not possible; the dams built by India on the Western Rivers are fully compliant with IWT and thus do not afford much leeway to operate so as to hurt Pakistan.

So far as the Eastern Rivers are concerned, the dams on these rivers are a considerable distance upstream of the border. As such, we would be harming our own people between the dam and the border also should we resort to measures like flooding or cutting off supplies. Till more infrastructure (not required to be in conformity with IWT now) is developed and/or our existing structures modified, our capabilities in creating serious water problems for Pakistan are limited.

Nevertheless, given the situation on the ground at present, the following are the measures which can be contemplated by us to put Pakistan at a disadvantage or provide India with some benefits in the absence of restrictions imposed by IWT once the decision on holding it in abeyance has been taken:

Drawdown flushing, which helps in the removal of sediment deposited in the reservoir, was not permitted in the Kishenganga project under IWT. We can now resort to that and increase the capacity of the reservoir. Choosing
the time and the period of refill cleverly can result in reduced supplies to Pakistan for some time in the year. This is feasible because the dam is close to
the LOC.

There is a 60 km reach of the Chenab River downstream of Baglihar in India before the river enters Pakistan. During the periods of low flows, the release from Baglihar may just be made to match our needs
in this 60 km stretch of the river, thereby making flow at the border zero. This will necessarily entail loss of power generation at the dam, and judgement needs to be exercised about
its advisability considering
the trade-off.

Two canals, Ranbir canal and Pratap canal, located in India, take off from the Chenab River and are permitted withdrawals of up to 1,000 cusecs and 400 cusecs, respectively, by the IWT. If adherence to IWT stipulations is not required, substantial quantities of water may be withdrawn through lift irrigation schemes at the two headworks and transferred through conduits or channels to the areas where irrigation water is required.

(The writer is a retired professor, IIT Roorkee, and member of the Indian
delegation presenting India’s case in the Baglihar and Kishenganga disputes under the Indus Waters Treaty)