Outnumbered, Outspent, Outplayed | India’s global diplomacy crisis

As a corporate lobbyist with three decades of experience navigating the corridors of power, I’ve seen firsthand how ‘perception management’ and ‘strategic influence’ can make or break a major business deal; or, in the case of a nation, determine its global standing and economic prospects.

India’s current challenge is neither a deficit of potential nor a deficit of ambition, but a severe ‘deficit of execution’ in both global lobbying and global communication. We are losing the silent war of diplomacy and narrative. We are losing it on account of budget, brains, and brawn. Waiting isn’t working. As millennials say, IYKYK.

The key lesson India’s diplomatic establishment must internalise is that effective influence is an investment, not an entitlement. In this vein, it’s long been a worry that our Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and most diplomatic missions are understaffed, and often have risk-averse bureaucracy at the helm.

It seems obvious now, more than ever before, that we simply cannot compete with the massive, integrated lobbying operations run by competing nations. Some of them are in our neighbourhood. They are neither shy of using top-class outside specialists, nor are they fully backed by insatiable political masters. Any ‘image operation’ must have a long horizon to achieve anything at all. Annual reviews are often a speed breaker. And nepo-baby think-tanks aren’t great crutches to lean on.

Bureaucratic brilliance, where it still survives, now must pay obeisance to the new political rhetoric that ‘India's greatness is self-evident’ or that ‘our time has come’. This suggests an institutional failure that is both systemic and individual-derived. It is costing India dearly. You cannot be ‘nice’ and expect to win, but you can’t be belligerent and bellicose either. You must be ‘strategic, proactive and persistent’.

India’s minimal presence in key international centres, from Washington and Brussels to West Asia and Singapore, is more than just an oversight; it's a strategic vulnerability that rivals are currently aggressively exploiting. In a world where geopolitical axes are swirling, only swift and sure footwork will prevent us from sinking, at a time when we feverishly believe we’re rising. ‘Waiting’ is a mug’s game, as geopolitics now changes every day. The most recent debacles, besides long-delayed trade deals, also include losing face over losing bases that our armed forces used to have in the region, to our enemies.

At the European Union, for example, the lack of continuous, detailed engagement with and around the European Parliament allows vested interests to inject restrictive clauses into negotiations like the EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

Similarly, in the United States, India’s reliance on our allegedly committed and powerful diaspora is no substitute for the professional lobbying firms that foreign governments pay top dollar to ensure their perspectives are central to the policy process from the start. Our fabled diaspora has now retreated into their frightened foxholes as the administration, after a perfumatory nod at Diwali, looked askance at these not saluting the Stars and Stripes instead of the Tricolour.

Another convenient trope is that our ‘Image’ progress in global influence is stymied by negative reporting by foreign media about India. Statistically, some will even point out that the number of positive articles about India in any global mainstream publication is totally dwarfed by the negative narratives that dominate their spaces. Blaming foreign media is the oldest game in town, and leaders may fulminate, but they will grab opportunities to be seen in those very same media that they like to vilify.

For a foreign reporter on the ground, mandatory stories on the brilliant rollout of UPI, the ability to deliver doles to individuals’ bank accounts directly, and the phenomenal success of unicorns from India’s startup ecosystem will segue into a colour piece on managing the greatest spiritual confluence of humans on earth at the Kumbh Mela. Then what happens? You need to find other stuff to report. So, caste-based killings or atrocities triggered by religious bigots, craters on urban roads or highways, and bridges that disappear with the first floods, and unattributed stories on the ‘unease of doing business’ in India or tax-terrorising tactics, are also covered.

Mostly unknown to the keepers of our faith, a significant portion of the anti-India narrative is now generated and amplified through coordinated social media campaigns often originating in places like Qatar, Kuwait, Türkiye, and Azerbaijan. They are utilising platforms and bot farms to spread disinformation. India fails to build sophisticated ‘cultural and media ties’ to counter this daily deluge of negative content, allowing these narratives to shape global elite and public opinion. Many in the establishment are oblivious to the daily damage of TikTokers (who we cannot see anymore in India) and swarms of anonymous creators whom we fulminate about. Our own bot farms are outsourced and tapped. Never by the very countries where they are being run out of. The few experts in the MEA probably don’t tell their bosses this either.

This strategic vacuum is compounded by a dramatic ‘cultural diplomacy deficit’. India's budget for cultural promotion is now dwarfed by major competitors like China, whose multi-hundred-million-dollar soft power machine works continuously to shape academic and elite opinion in major capitals. Our pathetically-funded India centres are inconsequential in the soft-power game at the moment. Surely, we can’t rely on Yoga Day alone in an age of both Tai chi and Pilates.

The failure to invest in global communication also creates a dangerous feedback loop: negative narratives established abroad are then used to blame foreign interference. We try to blame them for fuelling ‘domestic unrest’ and even for parliamentary paralysis. It’s no use. A rising India must professionalise its diplomatic apparatus, hire the best global expertise, and engage in the strategic art of building social media narratives to secure its rightful place on the world stage. Otherwise, our own echo chambers will deafen us.

Dilip Cherian, founding partner of Perfect Relations, is a public affairs consultant and branding strategist. Twitter: @DILIPtheCHERIAN

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.)