Pakistan is playing a good game with US. It won't last

In April, days after a terror attack in Kashmir, Pakistan unveiled a crypto venture tied to Trump’s family firm — one that netted him $57.7 million last year.

By Mihir Sharma

Pakistan’s army — and its chief Asim Munir — are brimming with confidence at the moment. A bit more caution would be wise: The generals, who hold the real power in Islamabad, have a history of over-promising and getting their country into trouble as a result.

The military is reveling in what it sees as its new centrality in regional politics. Munir has been invited to visit the US twice in as many months. On the last trip, he had a long lunch with President Donald Trump. This time around, he visited US Central Command in Tampa, and spoke to overseas Pakistanis about the nation’s growing importance.

That is, at least, how the generals see their position at the moment. The military emerged from a bruising confrontation with India in May with its domestic and international position enhanced.

Several major airbases were hit by airstrikes, which is a major escalation when compared to previous confrontations. But the Pakistani public was nevertheless pleased by reports that several Indian warplanes had been shot down. This buttressed the military’s case that they were the nation’s irreplaceable guardians — an argument that the jailed former prime minister, Imran Khan, has tried for some time to undermine.

Even more importantly, both civilian and military leaders were effusive in their praise of Trump and his administration, whom they credited with brokering an end to hostilities. This infuriated New Delhi, which has always refused to let anyone intervene in its disputes with its neighbor, but it endeared the Pakistanis to the White House.

The Trump administration has also thanked the South Asian country for its willingness to provide a back-channel to Iran at a time of heightened tensions. Pakistan’s capture of an Islamic State leader accused of plotting a bomb attack in Kabul in 2021 that killed 13 US soldiers was also viewed as positive. But the president is probably most pleased that Islamabad said it had officially nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Partly as a result of this campaign of praise, Pakistan has managed to win a reasonable trade deal from Trump: The lowest tariffs in South Asia, at 19%. Trump also announced that “both countries will collaborate on developing Pakistan’s extensive oil reserves,” and that he would shortly identify the lucky US company that would lead this partnership.

This announcement is a bit of a head-scratcher. Pakistan doesn’t have a lot of proven, easily accessible oil reserves. It did announce a big find last year, but details are yet to be confirmed; similar announcements in the past have had to be reversed. Even if it’s correct, it isn’t clear if developing these new reserves would make financial sense.

Nor will it be easy to find a corporate partner, given how challenging the security situation remains. Even Chinese companies investing in a state they consider a reliable client have found themselves caught in the middle of various internecine ethnic and religious conflicts. Chances are that the generals just dropped a promise that they would put vast and undiscovered new oil reserves at America’s disposal into Trump’s ear, and that helped convince him he was getting a better deal.

A few other developments might have caught the president’s attention. In April, for example, less than a week after terrorists killed 26 people in Kashmir, raising the prospect of war on the subcontinent, Pakistan’s finance ministry announced that its new crypto strategy would be run in cooperation with World Liberty Financial. The official press release explained that “World Liberty Financial is backed by the Trump family, including President Donald Trump and his sons.” In June, the president disclosed that the crypto firm had earned him $57.7 million last year.

Iran, oil reserves, crypto. The buzzwords are new, but the strategy isn’t. The Pakistani military has always found some way of making itself useful to powerful foreign backers, whether in Beijing, Washington or the Gulf. But, as successive US administrations have discovered, the generals’ promises sound good but are rarely kept.

The military reuses these methods because they always survive the fallout. Pakistan, however, rarely benefits. If anything, the entire region gets less stable when its generals get overconfident. In Tampa, Munir was relaxed and expansive when talking to the Pakistani diaspora: He warned that a nuclear exchange between the two would impact “half the world.” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, speaking on the nation’s Independence Day, shot back that “nuclear blackmail” was unacceptable.

Munir also hailed a “new chapter” in bilateral relations with the US. Neither he nor the Trump administration should be too sure the new chapters won’t end as badly as the old.