How our population will change by 2100

Recently, The Lancet published data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 to project global, regional and national population changes by 2100. It is fascinating to take stock of the world population at this crucial juncture, as we suffer through a pandemic, when it has completely jeopardised economy and the resultant unemployment has pushed people to sheer despair.

The foremost question here, has human resource become a liability in the changing scenario? This study comes to the rescue and it what it posits is quite contrary to the general assumptions, it shows India’s population coming down to 109 crores by 2100 from its current score of 138 crores. Similarly, based on the current pace of growth, India’s population will reach its peak of the demographic curve with 161 crores by 2048 and then the decline starts. The present study funded by the Bill Gates Foundation has taken the duration between 2017 and 2100 into account and the chief factors for consideration are birth and death ratio, fertility rate, and the floating population of 195 countries.

Interestingly, the report highlights the role of empowered women in enabling this tectonic shift in the world demography. To be specific, the positive developments that will possibly change the population chart are, the growing female literacy rate, increasing awareness and use of contraceptives, and larger employment of women. This survey has made some startling observations on the top three positions by 2100. Firstly, India will be on the top with 109 crore people. Quite surprisingly, China will move down to the third slot with 73 crore people. Nigeria will move up to the second position with 79 crore people. In short, almost 183 countries will see a decline in population and 23 countries will shelve half of their present tally. The main reason for this shift could be population control in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, which have always been the major contributors to the global population till date.

Significant take away from this report is, the working population will see a drastic decline in the coming years. In contrast, the number of the unemployed, retired and older population will move up. This phenomenon will severely affect the economy. As this study supposes, every employed will have to financially support at least one or more unemployed persons. If this happens, the working population will have to pay high-income tax to sustain the financially insecure masses.

Overall, this survey gives us numerous lessons in advance to brace for the changes. First, India needs to cross its highest number at the earliest. Once done, we will get ample time for adequate financial reforms based on the reduced numbers to take the country forward in development trajectory. As per this report, China reaches its peak in 2024 and India will hit that milestone in 2048. So, earlier the better.

Secondly, this survey reemphasizes the implication of women empowerment as the main booster for population control. Therefore, the attention needs to be paid for her physical and mental health. That is the best investment for country’s overall progress. Additionally, if the decision of childbirth becomes woman-centric, population control is easier.

Time and again, the government needs to focus more on public health care. The corona pandemic has exposed the loopholes of our poor health system enough. As well, the Finance ministry has to explore different sources to generate national income. As this survey hints at the possible drop in working population, we need a strong gross national income to feed the unemployed.

(The writer is Assistant Professor of English from Tumkur University, Karnataka)