Race in the Arctic: A big, ticking threat

US President Donald Trump’s executive order to withdraw from the Paris climate accord is set to cause serious disruptions to lives and livelihoods amid an unprecedented warming scenario. To bring the US back to dominate the supply chain of rare and critical minerals, Trump has moved to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America, expressed plans to take over the Panama Canal, and purchase Greenland for strategic reasons. Greenland, which has been under Danish control for over 300 years, also hosts the US Pituffik Space Base. To recover the military aid of $350 billion provided to Ukraine to fight out Russia since February 2022, Trump wants a mineral deal with the country. He also says that Canada has failed to invest adequately in defence, over-relied on the US security umbrella and the only way it can survive is as the ‘cherished’ 51st state of the US. Canada’s military spending has been 1.3 per cent of its GDP and is ranked at the bottom of the NATO table – it has been held to account for this not only by Trump but also by the European allies.

Canada’s foothold in the Arctic region is quite weak – its boundary with Russia is unprotected. The temperature in the region is rising four times higher as compared to the tropical and equatorial parts of the world. With the shrinking ice cover, fresh gulfs and gullies are revealed. Besides unveiling vast natural resources of oil and gas as well as rare and critical earth, it opens new sea routes, bringing a security challenge to North America. Chinese companies have sought to buy up mines in the North Arctic. Ahead of Canada’s election on April 28, Prime Minister Mark Carney of the Liberal Party and the Opposition conservatives’ leader Pierre Poilievre have vowed a substantial increase in defence investment in the country’s Arctic region.

Iqaluit, the largest island in the Canadian Arctic with a human population of 7,500, does not have a permanent military base or a strong presence of ice-breaking ships – the proposal for these have been rejected in the past on the grounds of cost. The Nanisivik naval facility – proposed to protect Canada’s Arctic territory and commissioned in 2007 – has not been opened owing to a cost overrun and design changes. Soldiers of the Canadian Army operate in the region in extremely harsh weather with the help of local guides. Even if Canada increases its defence spending to 2 per cent of its GDP, it will hardly be an answer to a problem of such magnitude. With Trump’s aggressive approach, politicians can justify a higher defence outlay for a network of radar systems, bases, new towns, and transport links across the tundra.

Russia has established its dominance in the icebreaker fleet, necessary for accessing new Arctic shipping lanes and tapping oil, gas, and minerals beneath the surface of the earth. Trump has proposed a major expansion of the US icebreaker fleet. The US is set to collaborate with the NATO allies towards acquiring 16 icebreaking multipurpose vessels, being built at Vancouver. It would leverage the collective icebreaking resources of NATO.

What explains the interest

The islands and coastal areas of the Arctic are controlled by eight countries – Greenland, Finland, Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Russia, the US, and Canada. These nations form the Arctic Council entrusted with conducting research, safeguarding the interests of indigenous people, and protecting the environment. The Arctic is governed by the UN Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) which enables nations to claim territories and deploy forces by providing necessary infrastructure. There have been overlapping maritime claims leading to tension among the members of the Arctic Council – for instance, Russia has maintained interest in Norway’s Arctic archipelago of Svalbard.

The US Geological Survey in 2009 reported that the region holds 13 per cent of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30 per cent of the gas reserves, besides holding one of the richest deposits of rare earth minerals. Chinese companies have come forward to invest in the region since the early 2020s. It is also planning its first nuclear-powered icebreaker as it has declared itself a ‘near-Arctic state’. China’s growing interest in the Arctic is a matter of concern for the Trump administration.

With such complex geopolitical tensions in the region and powerful nations keeping an eye on the resources, the competition among countries for drilling oil and gas and mining rare earth minerals would grow, leading to the pumping of more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and the rise in atmospheric temperature to a catastrophic level. With Trump withdrawing from the Paris climate accord, and accelerating drilling of oil and gas in Alaska and other parts of the US, degradation of nature is inevitable. Seasonal wildfires have hit Zabaykalsky Krai in Russia. At the rate at which this degradation is evolving, the forests that were net absorbers of carbon dioxide will become net emitters. Boreal forests are the world’s lung space, next in significance only to the Amazon forests. It is important to not destroy their potential.

The race for resources in the Arctic is heating up – the competition among countries, ideally, should have been to transition away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy, with speed and scale.

(The writer is a retired Principal Chief Conservator of Forests – Head of Forest Force, Karnataka)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.