Expected decline in rice output worrying

There is considerable shrinkage of the area under kharif crops in the current season and it is likely to adversely impact output in many areas of the country. Rice is the main kharif crop and as of now, there may be a 10 per cent shortfall in rice acreage. There is a dip in the area under cultivation of pulses also. This is because of the uneven spread of the monsoon. There was deficiency in rainfall in the main rice-growing region comprising eastern UP, Bihar, West Bengal and Jharkhand during the paddy sowing time in July-August. The deficit was as high as 40-50 per cent in some areas. Sowing and planting has been missed in large tracts of land. The monsoon stretches till September-October and it may still revive. But farmers will then be able to plant only short-duration varieties of paddy whose yields are lower. So, it is feared that there will be an overall fall in output of all crops. Estimates show there will be a decline of about 8 million tonnes in rice output.

In the central and western parts of the country, including Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, excessive rains have hit the crops. Crops that were planted some weeks ago have been damaged by rains and in many areas, farmers have had to go in for replanting. It is to be seen how successful these crops will be. Punjab and Haryana, where rice production is the highest in the country, have a different problem. A new disease called the ‘dwarfing disease’ is seen affecting rice crops in these states. No remedy has been found for it yet and it is likely that it will lead to a fall in yield. There are also fears that the disease may spread to crops in neighbouring areas like western UP.

The likely decline in kharif crop output comes after six consecutive good harvests. Rabi crops were affected by the heat wave in many parts of the country earlier this year. All rabi crops, including wheat, fruits and vegetables, were impacted by the high temperatures in many states, including Punjab and Haryana. There are worries that the lower yield of crops may lead to rise in prices and feed inflation, which is already high. The grain stocks in the central pool are at comfortable levels but they are the lowest in many years. The expected decline in rice output can have another consequence, too. India is a major rice exporter. If the government decides to ban or curb export of rice, as it did with wheat, it will lead to a serious food crisis and rise in prices in many parts of the world.