Feb will put nation into poll mode

The country has entered a prolonged election season with the announcement by the Election Commission of Assembly elections for the North-East states of Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland. The Commission has declared February 16 as the date of polling in Tripura and February 27 as the date for Meghalaya and Nagaland. The three are the first among the nine states where elections will be held this year, setting the tone and mood for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

The BJP declared this week after its national executive meeting in Delhi that it would win all the states. It has always set the maximum as the target and has mobilised and used all resources and means to achieve it. The fact that the elections are held in three small states which are far away from the political centre will not deter it. The party already dominates the North-East and it has to continue the dominance. A setback there would be a blow to the party, and that is the reason why the Opposition would try to do one up on it.

The BJP will face a serious test in Tripura, which is politically the most important of these states. The party, which was made mostly of defectors, has serious internal problems there. It had to replace Biplab Deb as Chief Minister last year, and its relations with its tribal ally, the IPFT, are strained. The CPM and the Congress may form an alliance and might rope in a new party, Tipra Motha, which has gained ground in recent months. But the Trinamool Congress, which has been active in the state, may not be part of the Opposition alliance and might split the anti-BJP votes. The Election Commission has a heavy responsibility to ensure that the state is free of poll-related violence.

The BJP’s alliance with Meghalaya’s local party, NPP, led by Chief Minister Conrad Sangma, is under strain. Sangma may fight the elections without an ally. He has made it clear that he did not support some of the BJP’s policies, such as on the Uniform Civil Code. It may be an election ploy in a predominantly Christian state, but the BJP as a party may not have much to gain from the elections. The state's boundary dispute with the BJP-ruled Assam may also become an election issue. The ruling coalition in Nagaland, comprising local parties and the BJP, is also not very comfortably placed. The Naga peace talks have not yielded results even after many years, and there is the demand for a separate state of Frontier Nagaland. The elections in the three states will put the country in election gear, but it is not clear what mood they will set.