Shashi Tharoor | India functions best as a united whole. North and South need each other

If South India feels politically disenfranchised, it might start demanding constitutional arrangements to decentralise power and grant more autonomy to states. If these calls are not heard and heeded, some hotheads in the south might even start pushing for separation

In recent weeks, Indian politics have been roiled by controversy over something that hasn’t happened yet: the government’s redrawing of the boundaries of parliamentary constituencies, which is likely to happen within the next few years, after a new census is carried out. The problem, southern states argue, is that this will unfairly shift the balance of political power to northern states.

In the Lok Sabha, seats are generally apportioned according to population: more people usually means more seats. Since whoever controls a majority of seats in the Lok Sabha gets to form the government, a larger population amounts to a major advantage.

But unbridled population growth can come at the expense of prosperity and social progress. So, in 1976, India froze delimitation (the process of redrawing constituency boundaries), thereby assuring states that they could seek slower population growth without sacrificing political influence. The freeze was initially set to last until 2001, but was extended by constitutional amendment, meaning that today’s boundaries are based on the 1971 census.

Since the freeze, the southern states have brought fertility rates down to or below replacement levels, and have made considerable progress on their human-development indicators, including literacy rates, healthcare, maternal and infant mortality, and gender equality. The north performs worse in these areas, as well as in terms of caste discrimination, unemployment, and economic growth, but its population has continued to grow.

The freeze on delimitation always had a time limit: until the first census after 2026. And the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has indicated that, rather than extending the freeze again, it intends to carry out a census — the one that was scheduled for 2021 has been repeatedly postponed — and redraw India’s electoral map accordingly.

The BJP says that this is a matter of fairness: the well-established principle of ‘one man, one vote, one value’ means that each member of Parliament should represent roughly the same number of people. It is undemocratic, they argue, that one MP represents just 1.8 million Keralites, while another represents 2.7 million voters in Uttar Pradesh.

Leaders of southern states counter that basing representation on population alone effectively rewards northern states for their higher population growth, while punishing southern states for stabilising their populations and advancing human development. Already, southern states are watching their share of central tax revenues decline for the same reason.

Population might be sufficient to determine representation in a homogenous society, but it is insufficient in a highly diverse one. That is why the United States, for example, apportions two Senate seats to each state, regardless of population. Similarly, the European Union grants smaller member countries more seats in the European Parliament than their population share would warrant, under a principle called ‘degressive proportionality’. Even in India, Goa, the smaller states of the northeast, and territories like the Andamans, Diu, and Lakshadweep have more MPs per capita than larger states.

India contains a vast diversity of languages, religions, demographic profiles, and levels of development. Moreover, under India’s ‘quasi-federal’ system, states wield a certain amount of power themselves. So, while equal representation is important, state autonomy and cultural diversity must also be respected. This means ensuring that one group (Hindi-speakers from the north) cannot dominate decision-making, without regard for the needs, priorities, experiences, and aspirations of others.

Home Minister Amit Shah assures southerners that they would not lose a single seat in a new delimitation. But that simply means that the government would create more seats for more populous northern states — where support for the BJP is concentrated. Some predict that the Lok Sabha could be expanded from 543 members to 753, with others noting ominously that the new parliament building has space for 888 Lok Sabha MPs.

If this happens, southern states’ relative political influence will decline, and a critical platform for debate on the most important issues facing India will be weakened. Already, some are dismayed by the declining standards of parliamentary debate. A significantly expanded Lok Sabha would be reduced to something akin to the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference: a body too large for meaningful discussion, left dutifully to ratify the government’s decisions.

Led by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin, southern Indian states have formed a Joint Action Committee to demand that the current arrangement be extended for another 25 years. But this arrangement does make India less democratic, because representation per citizen would not be equal. The problem is that changing the formula on the basis of a population census alone would be equally bad for Indian democracy, not least because it would undermine national harmony and cohesion.

If southerners feel politically disenfranchised, they might start demanding constitutional arrangements to decentralise power and grant more autonomy to states. If these calls are not heard and heeded, some hotheads in the south might even start pushing for separation.

This would be bad for everyone, as India functions best as a united whole. The North and South need each other. Northern states, with younger populations, can provide workers to the more industrially and socially developed southern states, to the benefit of all.

The current controversy offers an excellent opportunity to reaffirm and deepen Indian unity, by finding a solution that affirms its states’ mutual interdependence. The goal should be to mitigate North-South tensions by promoting balance and co-operation. To this end, India needs more dialogue and greater statesmanship — on both sides.

Disclaimer: Shashi Tharoor is a four-time MP from the Congress, currently representing Thiruvananthapuram. Views expressed by the author are personal.