Telangana caste survey discrepancies raise disturbing questions

A surprising revelation from the survey is the sharp increase in the open category population. This unexplained surge has led to speculation that figures may have been adjusted to justify EWS reservations

The recently released Telangana Socio, Caste, Economic, Education, Employment and Political (SCEEEP) Survey 2025 has ignited a debate over the accuracy and reliability of its findings.

Among the most alarming concerns is the reported decline in the Backward Classes (BC) population, which contradicts historical trends and previous surveys. Discrepancies between past estimates and the current figures suggest possible undercounting, raising serious questions about the methodology and intent behind the survey.

This has led to three critical concerns: Why is the decadal population growth not reflected in the caste survey? Why has the BC population decreased compared to the Comprehensive Household Survey (CHS) 2023? Why is there no significant increase in the Muslim population?

Contradictions galore

The Telangana caste survey recorded a total population of 3.54 crore, which is significantly lower than the estimated 4.1-4.2 crore based on past growth rates. This discrepancy accounts for nearly 16 lakh missing individuals, raising concerns about enumeration errors, migrant exclusion, or deliberate omissions.

Further scrutiny reveals contradictions in electoral data, with Telangana having 3.31 crore registered voters in the 2025 general elections. Given that at least 25 per cent of the population is below 18 years of age, the actual population should be over 4 crore, making the survey’s figures questionable.

The missing BCs

Another key issue is the reported decline in the BC population. According to the SCEEEP survey, the BCs now constitute 46.25 per cent of the total population, whereas previous surveys, including the CHS 2014, reported the BCs at 52 per cent. This unexpected decrease contradicts demographic expectations and suggests potential underrepresentation. Unlike the Scheduled Castes (SCs) and the Scheduled Tribes (STs), which have shown a natural increase, the BC population has reportedly fallen. The figures appear inconsistent, especially in a state where the BCs have historically formed a significant demographic.

Adding to these concerns is the way the survey presents the BC and the Muslim BC populations as a single combined figure of 56 per cent. This method obscures the Hindu BC population and weakens their claim to reservations and welfare benefits. By merging different communities together, the survey misrepresents the statistical reality, and diminishes the individual representation of these groups.

The slight shift

A surprising revelation from the survey is the sharp increase in the Open Category (OC) population. While previous estimates placed the OC population below 10 per cent, the SCEEEP survey pegs it at 15.79 per cent. This unexplained surge has led to speculation that figures may have been adjusted to justify Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) reservations. One possible explanation is the deletion of 26 BC castes from the OBC list in Telangana, including Kalinga, Settibalija, Gavara, Thurupu Kapu, and Kopula Velama, among others. These castes, comprising nearly 10 lakh individuals, may have been shifted into the OC category, artificially inflating its percentage.

The survey’s findings on the Muslim population have also raised questions. The Muslim population in Telangana has remained stagnant at around 12.56 per cent, which contradicts general demographic trends. Across India, census data typically shows a gradual increase in the Muslim population, but in Telangana, this growth appears to have been curiously absent. This raises suspicions about whether enumeration processes have failed to account for certain sections of the population.

Competence and intent

A major cause for concern is the lack of transparency surrounding the survey’s methodology. The Revanth Reddy government has not fully disclosed the enumeration process, leading to scepticism about the accuracy of the data. Independent researchers and social analysts argue that without clear documentation, it is impossible to determine whether the survey adhered to proper demographic principles. Given the critical implications of caste data in policymaking and social justice, this opacity is deeply troubling.

Bureaucratic accountability is another pressing issue. The state planning department and other responsible bureaucrats should have reviewed and flagged any discrepancies before releasing the data. The failure to detect and rectify these inconsistencies before publication raises questions about the competence and intent behind the survey. If errors were made in data collection or reporting, they need to be immediately corrected to ensure that policy decisions are based on accurate and reliable statistics.

Take immediate corrective measures

The survey report is being openly challenged by Congress Member of Legislative Council (MLC) Theenmaar Mallanna and most BC associations in the state, including the OBC Intellectual Forum. These facts are sufficient to convince the public to recognise the discrepancies in the caste survey data.

In response to these concerns, experts and activists have called for immediate corrective measures. The Telangana government must disclose the complete enumeration process and allow for independent audits. A transparent review of the methodology will help restore public trust and address concerns about underrepresentation and data manipulation. Additionally, the BCs should be counted independently rather than being merged with other groups, ensuring fair representation, and an accurate caste-wise breakdown.

Steps must be taken to verify and include those who may have been excluded from the survey. Enumeration teams should conduct thorough re-examinations of migrant populations, marginalised communities, and rural areas to ensure comprehensive and accurate coverage.

Serious questions

The primary objective of the survey is to enable the government to implement BC reservations in local body elections, challenge the 50 per cent ceiling on reservations, and push for an increase in BC quotas. At the national level, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is actively advocating for this critical issue. However, if the current form of the data is submitted to justify an increase in reservations, the judiciary is likely to raise serious concerns.

The Telangana caste survey should serve as a tool for empowerment, not exclusion. If data manipulation is proven, it could have severe consequences for the political, economic, and social rights of the BCs and other marginalised communities. A fair, transparent, and accurate enumeration process is essential to uphold justice and equitable representation for all communities in Telangana.

The Revanth Reddy government must act swiftly to address these discrepancies and take corrective measures to ensure the credibility of the SCEEEP survey. Only then can the data be effectively used to shape policies, welfare programmes, and affirmative action initiatives that genuinely serve the interests of Telangana’s diverse population.

(G Kiran Kumar, National President, All India OBC Students Association (AIOBCSA).)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.