Who could be the next President of India?

Race for Raisina Hill

Political winds blowing in poll-bound Uttar Pradesh could be causing more than some concern for Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has to finalise in the next few months the candidate of the ruling dispensation for the presidential elections.

Ramnath Kovind, 76, will be retiring as the President in July, after an uneventful term.

The million-dollar question is whether Modi can spring a surprise again by bringing in yet another low-profile loyalist into Rashtrapati Bhavan?

Reports from Uttar Pradesh suggest that the ruling dispensation is not exactly in pink of health in the Hindutva heartland. It is being given a run for its money by the Opposition led by Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav.

The choice of the presidential candidate would depend on the shape of things to come on March 10 when the results of the Assembly elections in five states, including UP, will be out. As of now, BJP insiders feel that they could just scrape through in Yogi Adityanath-ruled UP. In the outgoing House, BJP had a mammoth 312 seats out of a total of 403.

It will be a different ballgame if there is an upset for the BJP in UP, which will give a huge opportunity to what’s currently a disparate opposition to come together. Only time will tell whether they will grasp such an opportunity.

So, it is a bit early to predict whether Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah would zero in on a Dalit leader or a Dalit woman leader or one from the OBC, which is currently the flavour of the political season, as the next presidential candidate.

The BJP has generally remained the darling of the upper castes, so would it opt for a Brahmin, Bania, or a Thakur to occupy the magnificent house on Raisina Hill? Someone having high credentials of Hindutva but an amenable person?

Given the larger-than-life persona of the Prime Minister, the only answer at the moment is that he/she is expected to be another low-profile loyalist. Other blank spaces regarding caste, class, region would be filled after sorting out the arithmetic of the electoral college in March. Another clear thing is that a leader from the downtrodden -- SC/ST or OBC -- could be the next Vice President if either of these communities fail to get the top slot. Politics is the game of giving signals, and Modi is an expert at that.

If, and it’s a big if, the BJP’s Hindutva game succeeds substantially in UP, one leader is expected to join the high table to select the successor to Kovind. He is Yogi Adityanath who, in the eyes of Hindutva hardliners, has emerged as the natural successor to Modi.

Uttar Pradesh is too important a state and the vote from the state carries the highest value in the presidential polls. It is no secret that the RSS had strongly backed Yogi last year when the high and mighty in New Delhi attempted to remove him as UP Chief Minister.

One must admit that there are hardly any discordant notes in the BJP at present, but post-March 10 could be a different cup of tea.

In 2017, Modi-Shah had played the Dalit card to the hilt by proposing the name of a silent leader wearing the loyalty tag on his sleeve. The duo had played it close to the chest, so much so that even the RSS top brass is said to have been unaware of their choice till virtually the last moment.

Vice President M Venkaiah Naidu is a former BJP chief. Though never elected to the Lok Sabha, Naidu has been politically astute and quick to grasp the winds. Once among those closest to L K Advani, he made a smooth transition to the Modi camp to emerge as the first Minister of Parliamentary Affairs in the Modi dispensation in May 2014. Talk in BJP is that he would like his seniority and loyalty to be rewarded.

If the Dalit card used by the Congress in Punjab has its impact in Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls, then Modi-Shah could be forced to zero in on another leader from the downtrodden community to be the next first citizen of India. Karnataka Governor Thawarchand Gehlot, who has been Union minister and Leader of the BJP in the Rajya Sabha, could then be one of the frontliners. Gehlot hails from Madhya Pradesh.

The BJP has been using the OBC card with a bang these days to give more zing to its Hindutva energy drink. The backward card is a broad spectrum one having implications in the North and the South, East and West. But with Modi himself hailing from among the backwards, the next President from the same class could have its complications.

The gender card could also be brought into play along with the Dalit card to make double gains. A woman leader as President could raise a bit of a problem to ambitious women leaders in the Opposition having an eye on the Prime Minister’s chair.

Sometimes in the past, it is common knowledge, the corporate sector too has played more than a discreet role in the selection of the President.

With the May 2014 Lok Sabha verdict, Modi-Shah had emerged as their own bosses and finalised themselves the issue of the successor to the then incumbent Pranab Mukherjee. Their primary consideration was that they wanted someone in the Rashtrapati Bhavan whom they could implicitly trust after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls so that the political dice remained loaded in their favour in the eventuality of a hung verdict. Now, their sights are firmly on the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and the scene thereafter.

In 2017, the Prime Minister had virtually pulled a rabbit out of the hat. Whether he would be able to do so again is a hard question to answer at present. Much water will have flown in the Ganga and Yamuna by the time he makes a decision, some of it perhaps bringing challenges galore for the BJP and its high command.