Sea-level rise, cyclones: IPCC report's warning for Indian megacities

Indian megacities like Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai — which are located along the coastline — face the impact of sea-level rise, storm surges, cyclones and rising sea surface temperatures, according to a report curated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The latest report by the IPCC of the second part of its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) was released on Monday.

“The impact of cyclones are going to be much more pronounced in the future for Mumbai, both pre and post-monsoon cyclones will increase. India has a 7,500 km coastline, most of the megacities like Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai are situated along the coastline. So the impacts of sea-level rise, storm surges, cyclones and rising sea surface temperatures are all high-risk factors for these megacities and adaptation is the primary solution,” said noted climate scientist Anjal Prakash.

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According to him, damages from rising sea levels in Mumbai are estimated to be worth $49-50 billion (Rs 3.70 lakh crore to Rs 3.78 lakh crore) by 2050 and may climb by a factor of 2.9 by 2070.

Another study included in the IPCC report estimated that if emissions continue to grow, damage from sea-level rise in Mumbai alone might cost up to $162 billion (Rs 12.082 lakh crore) per year by 2050.

Dr Prakash, who is a research director and adjunct associate professor at the Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business and author of IPCC 6th Assessment Report Working Group II, said infrastructural interventions can sometimes be maladaptive when assessed over longer time periods – like the Mumbai Coastal Road (MCR) project aimed at reducing flood risk and protecting against sea-level rise will potentially cause damages to intertidal fauna and flora and local fishing livelihoods.

In Mumbai, poorer families’ homes required many repairs to protect them against flood damage, and the total cost of those repairs consumed a larger proportion of their income, according to the briefing note is part of a project under the ‘Simplifying Science’ Programme.

As the global climate crisis intensifies, more people are being compelled to evacuate their homes as a result of natural disasters, droughts, and other extreme weather events, in order to locate safer places to assure their future generations’ safety.

“The Gangetic Plain and the Delhi–Lahore corridor are migratory hotspots in South Asia, as are coastal cities like Chennai, Chittagong, Dhaka, and Mumbai, which would be concurrently vulnerable to climate change impacts and important migration destinations, and accelerated rural-urban mobility,” the report states.

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