Uncertainty over Jammu and Kashmir Assembly polls

More than three years after the BJP government ended the special status of Jammu and Kashmir by abrogating the special status guaranteed under Article 370 of the Constitution of India, the political, as well as the electoral processes in the Union Territory (UT), remain in freeze, with uncertainty looming large over assembly elections.

The J&K has been under Central rule since June 19, 2018, following the collapse of a coalition government headed by Mehbooba Mufti after its partner BJP withdrew its support to it. On August 5, 2019, the Center’s landmark move to revoke Article 370 was followed by a strict security and communication lockdown to avoid any protests against the momentous decision.

In March 2020, the BJP government went ahead with the delimitation process in accordance with the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act, 2019 although the petitions challenging the law was pending before the Supreme Court. For more than two years, the BJP leaders kept on saying that the assembly polls in the UT would be held after the completion of the delimitation process.

However, more than five months have passed since the delimitation process was completed, yet much awaited Assembly polls are nowhere in sight.

During his recent J&K visit, Home Minister Amit Shah said that the assembly polls would be held when the voter list would be finalized and ‘other preparations’ would be completed.

He didn’t specify what ‘other preparations’ meant. Neither did he commit any specific timeline.

The question remains what is stopping the BJP from holding Assembly polls in J&K.

There is no doubt about the saffron party’s ambition to have a Hindu chief minister in the only Muslim majority state of the country – a feat it would like to sell ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

However, even after increasing the number of seats in its bastion Jammu region from 37 to 43 through the delimitation process, it seems the party is not sure whether its dream will turn into a reality or not.

In Kashmir, the BJP has no chance to win any seat. Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party, Sajjad Lone’s People’s Conference and newly floated Democratic Azad Party led by Ghulam Nabi Azad are all seen as proxies of the BJP in Kashmir.

The saffron party banks on them to win some seats so that it can reach the 46 mark in the 90-member assembly. But at the moment it looks difficult and this may force the BJP to delay elections in the UT further.

Mohammad Yousuf Tarigami, a leader of the CPI(M), questioned the BJP government’s claims that normalcy had returned to J&K and all ‘wrongs’ had been set right.

“If that is the case, why are the elections being delayed?” asked Tarigami, who is also the spokesman of the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration.