BJP looks to tweak 2018 math to upset Siddaramaiah's Ahinda applecart in Kolar

'Kolar isn’t dominated by any major community,' a Congress MLC said

Congress leader Siddaramaiah is banking heavily on the Ahinda factor in the Kolar constituency where the BJP is confident of fighting him based on hopes of a split in votes and the math from the 2018 Assembly election result.

Political circles are still debating on whether or not Kolar is ‘safe’ enough for Siddaramaiah, the former chief minister who is eyeing a second term if the Congress wins the 2023 Assembly polls.

In 2018, JD(S) won Kolar with 46.22 per cent votes with a Vokkaliga candidate (Srinivas Gowda). The Congress bagged 21.52 per cent votes with a Muslim candidate (Syed Zameer Pasha). Now that Gowda is with Congress, Siddaramaiah hopes for a transfer of JD(S) votes.

The BJP, in 2018, got only 6.96 per cent votes. However, the party will count on adding 19.85 per cent votes garnered by former minister Varthur Prakash, a Kuruba like Siddaramaiah who contested from his own Namma Congress party in 2018.

"Gowda has moved to Congress without his voters. We have our own votes coupled with Prakash's. And, Siddaramaiah's attitude will automatically drive some votes away from him," BJP's Kolar president Dr KN Venugopal claimed.

But, Congress MLC Naseer Ahmed is armed with numbers to demonstrate that Kolar is made for Siddaramaiah. "Out of 2.31 lakh voters, almost 1.87 lakh belong to the Ahinda," he told DH. "We've done our homework."

According to Ahmed, Vokkaliga-dominated hoblis went out of Kolar after the 2008 delimitation. "Kolar isn't a constituency dominated by any of the major communities," he said, adding that the constituency has 62,000 Muslims, 60,000 SCs, 26,000 Vokkaligas, 22,000 Kurubas, 3,000 Lingayats and 3,000 Brahmins. "Siddaramaiah started the Ahinda movement from Kolar. He’s close to all these sections."

Kolar BJP MP S Muniswamy, the giant-killer who defeated Congress veteran K H Muniyappa in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, is not convinced with Siddaramaiah's Ahinda plan.

“The victory margin of JD(S) against Congress in 2018 was over 40,000 votes. These were Muslim votes. Now, H D Kumaraswamy and C M Ibrahim will make sure Muslim votes don’t come easy for Congress,” Muniswamy told DH. In 2019 LS polls, BJP got 55 per cent votes against Congress in Kolar Assembly segment.

Muniswamy said the Kolar constituency has 80,000 SC/STs. “There’s anger among Dalits towards Siddaramaiah. Similarly, there’s anger among Kurubas also. Vokkaligas, anyway, aren’t fond of Siddaramaiah. So, this will be Siddaramaiah’s last straw,” he insisted.

Another crucial factor for Siddaramaiah will be Muniyappa’s role amid his feud with ex-speaker Ramesh Kumar.

“Muniyappa still needs to be pacified. If the party denies him the Devanahalli ticket, we don’t know how he’ll take it,” one Congress MLA said.