As South Korea's impeached president Yoon awaits fate, his party sees signs of revival

Seoul: A prolonged period of uncertainty over the fate of impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and a botched attempt to arrest him are giving oxygen to his backers and reviving support for his troubled party.

Yoon, suspended from duties after his short-lived imposition of martial law on December 3 and under criminal investigation for possible insurrection, has for weeks been holed up inside his hilltop residence in Seoul, guarded by a small army of personal security staff.

In a National Barometer Survey poll released on Thursday, 59 per cent of respondents wanted him arrested, something investigators are determined to do even though they failed last week after a widely televised six-hour standoff with his security force. Some 37 per cent said arresting Yoon was excessive.

A similar split fell in favour of the Constitutional Court, currently considering lawmakers' decision to impeach Yoon, removing him permanently.

Analysts say the prospects of Yoon returning to office are unclear but the hiatus has emboldened his supporters, scores of whom braved sub-zero temperatures to gather near his residence on Thursday morning.

The weeks since Yoon's impeachment have also seen a recovery in support for his ruling People Power Party (PPP), which some analysts say shows signs conservatives are uniting to fight a possible presidential election later this year.

Yoon supporters reinvigorated by arrest attempts

"It seems that the attempt to arrest Yoon has reinvigorated conservatives," said Mason Richey, a professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul.

He said that revival comes from both die-hard Yoon supporters, who back his reasons for declaring martial law, including unsubstantiated allegations of election fraud, and those less supportive of Yoon but concerned at the prospect of Lee Jae-myung, the liberal leader of the main opposition party, becoming president.

"If the arrest effort had succeeded, these conservatives would have been defeated for a second time, following impeachment, and that reinvigoration would possibly have been snuffed out quickly. The more that arrest attempts fail, the stronger reinvigorated conservatives will feel," said Richey.

A Realmeter poll released on Monday put the PPP's approval rating at 34.4 per cent, up for three consecutive weeks. The main opposition Democratic Party, which commands a parliamentary majority and brought on Yoon's impeachment vote, scored 45.2 per cent.

Most pollsters in South Korea have stopped tracking Yoon's approval ratings since he was impeached by parliament, although some fringe polls have shown a rise in his personal support in recent days.

As he faces the prospect of another arrest attempt, his lawyers have remained defiant, alleging that the anti-corruption officers seeking his arrest do not have authority to investigate him for insurrection, even though a court has issued a warrant.

Yoon lawyers say he will accept constitutional court ruling

The lawyers, however, told reporters on Thursday that the Constitutional Court's decision on Yoon's political future will be accepted. Rulings by the court, one of the two highest courts in the country along with the Supreme Court, cannot be appealed.

"The president is still staying strong. He said he doesn't want people to suffer and public officials to suffer from this, but he can't accept illegal investigations," lawyer Seok Dong-hyeon, Yoon's confidant, told supporters outside his residence on Wednesday.

Jeremy Chan, senior analyst covering Northeast Asia at Eurasia Group, a US-based political risk consultancy, said further attempts to arrest Yoon would likely only "galvanise" his support and that of his party.

Yoon's supporters also draw inspiration from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has previously made unsubstantiated claims of election fraud and faced a litany of legal troubles but made a stunning comeback in an election last year.

Some of Yoon's supporters have adopted the "Stop the Steal" slogan popularised by Trump's proponents to ramp up fraud allegations against the election watchdog. Trump has not directly commented on Yoon's situation.

Lee Jun-han, professor of political science at Incheon National University, said conservative voters were more probably driven by the memory of conservatives' heavy election defeat after the impeachment of president Park Geun-hye in 2017.