A balancing act? After S-400s from Russia, India likely to buy Predator B drones from US

India’s move to buy the Predator B armed drones from General Atomics signals its keenness to strike a delicate balance in its military imports from Russia and the US

With President Joe Biden’s administration frowning upon India’s move to buy S-400 Triumf missile defence systems from Russia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government in New Delhi may soon clear a proposal to buy 30 armed drones from the United States at an estimated cost of nearly Rs 21,000 crore.

The Defence Acquisition Council of the government will soon consider and clear the proposal to buy 30 MQ-9 Reaper (a.k.a. Predator B) drones from the General Atomics of the United States. The drones will be procured for the Indian Army, Navy and Air Force, a source in New Delhi said.

Also Read | India moves ahead to take delivery of S-400 missile defence system from Russia

India is making the move to buy the Predator B armed drones from the General Atomics of the US even as it is preparing to take the delivery of the first units of the S-400 Triumf missile defence systems from Russia by the end of this year – signalling its keenness to strike a balance in its military hardware imports.

New Delhi’s October 2018 deal with Moscow to buy five S-400 Triumf long-range surface-to-air missile systems from Almaz-Antey Corporation of Russia at an estimated cost of Rs 39000 crore has been an irritant in its relations with the US.

The deal put India at the risk of being subjected to US sanctions under the CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act), which Biden’s predecessor President Donald Trump had signed into law in August 2017. Section 231 of the CAATSA mandates secondary sanctions to any nation entering into high-value deals to procure military hardware from Russia. The US already placed entities in China and Turkey under the CAATSA sanctions for procuring the S-400 missile defence systems from Russia.

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India has been asking the US to grant it a waiver from the CAATSA sanctions, arguing that it could not abruptly lessen its dependence on military hardware from Russia, given the decades-old defence ties between the two nations. It also pointed out that it needed the S-400 missile defence systems from Russia, in view of escalating tension along the India-China disputed boundary, not only in the western sector but also along the middle and the eastern sectors.

The Biden Administration, however, continued with the stand of the erstwhile Trump Administration on the issue and so far remained non-committal on granting the waiver for India from the US CAATSA sanctions despite growing strategic convergence between the two nations.

Wendy Sherman, the US Deputy Secretary of State, last month acknowledged during a visit to New Delhi that India’s decision to buy the S-400 Triumf missile defence systems from Russia was a “problem” in the relationship between New Delhi and Washington D.C., and it was not in the security interests of anyone.

Also Read | US conveys its unease over India's S-400 deal with Russia

India’s plea for CAATSA waiver however got support from the US lawmakers.

Three Republican Party’s Senators – Ted Cruz, Todd Young and Roger Marshall – recently introduced a proposed amendment to the National Defence Authorisation Act 2022, seeking to make it mandatory for the US President to certify to an appropriate committee of the American Congress before imposing the CAATSA sanctions on India, Japan or Australia that the particular country had failed to cooperate with the US in “security matters critical” to the “strategic interests” of the US. India, Japan and Australia are partners of the US in the Quad – a coalition the four nations forged to counter the hegemony of China in the Indo-Pacific region.

Senator John Cornyn of the Republican Party also publicly argued that India should not be placed under the CAATSA sanctions as it had substantially lessened its reliance on Russia for military hardware and had shown interest to buy more weapons from the US. Cornyn joined Mark Warner, a Senator of the Democratic Party, to write a letter to the US President, requesting him to waive the CAATSA sanctions for India.

Read | Discussions with US underway on S-400: India

A source in New Delhi said that a big-ticket defence deal like the one to procure 30 Predator B drones from General Atomics would strengthen the argument in favour of a CAATSA waiver for India even if it continued to procure military hardware from Russia.

New Delhi is also likely to hold a series of key engagements with both Washington D.C. and Moscow over the next few weeks. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh will host their counterparts in the Russian Government, Sergey Lavrov and Sergey Shoygu, for the 2+2 dialogue in New Delhi early next month – just ahead of the annual summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin. Jaishankar and Singh will also visit Washington D.C. soon for a similar 2+2 dialogue with the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin.

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