CMIE sees real GDP growth at 9.2% this fiscal

“We expect a 9.2 per cent growth in real GDP in fiscal 2010-11,” Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said in its latest review of the Indian economy here.

In FY 2009-10, real GDP grew by 7.4 per cent. According to the think-tank, all the three broad sectors of the economy — industrial, services and agricultural and allied sectors — are expected to fare well.

“The industrial sector (including construction) is projected to grow by 9.4 per cent in fiscal 2010-11, better than the 9.2 per cent growth in 2009-10,” CMIE said.

On the services sector, it said that the sector is projected to expand by 10 per cent this fiscal as compared to 8.6 per cent in FY 10. “The trade and transport segment will lead this growth,” CMIE said.

Strong recovery

With an impressive growth in the commodities sector,trade activities are projected to grow by a robust 10.5 per cent in 2010-11, as against a 7.3 per cent rise estimated in 2009-10 and a 6.3 per cent growth achieved in 2008-09, it said. The agricultural and allied sector is projected to grow by 5.1 per cent and foodgrain production is projected to rise by 5.2 per cent, as compared to an estimated 7 per cent decline in FY 10, the think-tank said. Oilseed production is projected to grow by 15.4 per cent, recovering strongly from the 11.6 per cent decline estimated in FY 10. Sugarcane is projected to grow by 12.9 per cent and cotton by 12.4 per cent.

The allied activities segment (livestock, forestry and logging and fishing) will maintain its normal growth rate of two to four per cent, CMIE said. In the second-half of this fiscal, CMIE expects India’s real GDP growth to be higher than the first-half.

“We expect real GDP to grow by 9.7 per cent in the second half of the current fiscal. This will be higher than the 8.9 per cent growth recorded in the first-half of the fiscal,” it said.
The major contributor will be agriculture and trade- -transport-hotels-communication segment of the services sector, CMIE said, adding “the performance of the finance-insurance-real estate-business service segment will also improve in the second-half of the year.”